You won't hear anything for a while (maybe a few more weeks or so). It goes OIC/XPO, BMC, BM1, BM2, BM3 in that order. They are just finishing BM1, and just starting BM2. When they start a rank, they don't go by priority. They go by position, then look up who applied. If they look up Lake Tahoe, and you are on there as a priority 2 and everyone else is 3 or lower, don't count on that either. They also look at quals and needs of the member. In most cases I have seen, as a priority 2 you should get your #1 or #2 pick, worse case maybe #3.
Hah, I wish cat. 5 BM2's were out then, but by looking at peoplesoft, you can watch the number of positions and tell they have not sent any out yet, not even priority 1. The numbers have increased in fact, which means they are finalizing, and getting ready for the process. I am just as desperate as you to find out were I am going. As for the "A" schooler getting what you put in for, well, sometimes we just get screwed that way. I have a SN who is number 5 on the "A"school list, and has been for several months. The direct "A"school from bootcamp is screwing him over, and it isn't fair. I remember when senior SN in the field were bigger priority.
Just because the numbers in people soft are changing one way or the other doesn't necessarily mean they are issuing orders. The numbers may be changing due to fleet ups, advancements, etc. You will drive yourself crazy by watching the count of billets. I know some people who will sit there and refresh the page every 20 minutes, now that's borderline insane! Be patient, they will come.