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Since Taiwan is the primary 'flashpoint' between China and the U.S., I figure they deserve their own thread.
 --------------------------------------------- Military experts push for rethink of weapons plans WRONG PRIORITIES: Experts urged focusing on offensive weaponry such as a strategic sub fleet, and cast doubt on the efficacy of Patriot missiles LINK Sunday, Mar 13, 2005 Military experts suggested that offensive weapons might best improve the nation's deterrent force, as the Ministry of National Defense (MND) seeks to make submarines a budget priority. Lin Tsung-ta (林宗達), a senior editor of Defense International and an expert on China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), told the Taipei Times that Taiwan needs to build a force with better offensive capabilities, including a strategic submarine force, instead of focusing purely on defensive weapons. Liao Wen-chung (廖文中), a research fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States, said if Taiwan wants to upgrade its submarine force, it must swiftly develop Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite technology. Liao said such technology allows for precise mapping of underwater landscapes, and direct guidance of submarines. He said Taiwan had successfully delivered the high-resolution Earth observation satellites FORMOSAT 1 and FORMOSAT 2 (also known as ROCSAT 1 and 2), and is scheduled to deliver FORMOSAT 3 this year. But there are still technical hurdles to surmount if Taiwan wants to equip the newest satellite with SAR technology, he said. Meanwhile, Lin questioned the effectiveness of Patriot missiles. Lin said China currently had an arsenal of more than 700 short-range ballistic missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan. According to the "two plus two theory," a defender must simultaneously launch four missiles -- two Theater High-Altitude Area Defense missiles and two Patriots -- ?for each incoming missile in order to have a 95 percent probability of intercepting it. To achieve that success rate, Taiwan would therefore need nearly 3,000 missiles to effectively counter China's short-range ballistic missile threat. However, Taiwan, the proposed purchase of 384 additional Patriot missiles would only bring Taiwan's total Patriot arsenal to 584. Worse, said Lin, China has been developing mid-range ballistic missiles that can hit targets at speeds of more than Mach-10, but Patriot missiles cannot hit ballistic missiles traveling at more than Mach 6. Most worrisome, Lin said, is China's improving cruise missile capabilities. China currently has more than 200 cruise missiles which can be launched from bases, fighter jets, ships or submarines with more accuracy than ballistic missiles. Patriot missile also cannot intercept such cruise missiles. To minimize the impact of an intensive PLA missile attack, Taiwan needs to spread its air force and navy installations and equipment over a large number of small bases "because China can't to destroy one hundred bases in a short time," Lin said. Since the legislature has blocked the NT$480 billion arms budget, the Defense Ministry has made the procurement of eight diesel-powered submarines and 12 P-3C sub-hunting aircraft its priorities. Meanwhile, the ministry is mulling the transfer of the PAC-3 missile battery procurement to next year's annual military budget. |
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...[UPDATE]... Executive Yuan approves draft bill for weapons 2005-03-17 / Taiwan News http://www.etaiwannews.com/Taiwan/Politics/2005/03/17/1111023614.htm The Executive Yuan approved a draft bill for a weapons deal with the U.S. during its weekly meeting yesterday that could be sent to the Legislature by next week. The government plans to acquire an arms package that was promised by the Bush administration in April 2001 that includes eight diesel electric submarines, twelve P-3C Orion ASW aircraft and six batteries of PAC-3. The long-stalled procurement plan has been downsized to NT$480 billion from the original NT$610.8 billion. Rejected last year During 2004, the draft bill on the special military purchase as well as a special budget to make the planned purchase were all sent to the Legislature, but were finally rejected as opposition parliamentarians claimed the purchase was too expensive. The Democratic Progressive Party legislative caucus hopes that discussions over the special budget's draft bill will be included in the parliament's defense committee agenda by next Friday. Defense minister Lee Jye (李傑) told the DPP caucus that the yet-to-be-proposed purchase plan could be downsized to NT$480 billion because the planned cost of locally building eight submarines was removed as the Ministry of National Defense is also reluctant to let local shipyards construct them. The pan-blue camp seems reluctant to approve the budget, claiming that the total cost is still too high. People First Party legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) said that the cost of the three items to be purchased is in fact unchanged and Taiwan will also buy the most expensive submarines in the world, which is a fact he cannot accept. Ceiling changed The ceiling for the procurement package was marked down because the submarines would not be built in Taiwan and the new Taiwan dollar has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, officials said. During the meeting, Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) urged the Legislative Yuan to pass the proposed statute as soon as possible in order to maintain the government's credibility and the country's defense capabilities. Hsieh also ordered relevant authorities to step up communications with the public and lawmakers to win support for the statute and budget. According to Cabinet spokesman Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), the government will not be able to go ahead with the procurement unless the statute passes the legislature. Cho said the government is under intense time pressure, as the agreed amount and items of the procurement might change if there are further delays. |
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U.S. want Taiwan to commit on ASW aircrafts by May 1
2005/03/23 http://english.www.gov.tw/index.jsp?action=cna&cnaid=7969 Taipei, March 23 (CNA) The United States has asked Taiwan to decide before May whether it intends to buy 12 U.S.-made P-3C anti-submarine aircraft, an Naval official told the Legislative Yuan Wednesday. Navy General Staff Vice Admiral Lee Hai-tung said the U.S. might withdraw its offer to sell the planes if Taiwan fails to commit to the deal before May 1. He said he did not agree with an opposition lawmaker's sarcastic claim that Taiwan is America's watchdog in the Taiwan Strait, but he admitted that Taiwan would share with the United States information gathered by its anti-submarine aircraft. In a briefing to the legislature, Lee said the 12 P-3Cs offered by the United States are the same model currently in use by the U.S. and would therefore make exchanging information on the planes with the U.S. easy. Lee said the 12 P-3Cs are the minimum Taiwan requires to shield itself from underwater attacks, and after being retrofitted, they would replace the country's aging anti-submarine fleet of 26 S-2Ts. They may also be used in combination with forces on and beneath the water to expand the current area patrolled by a factor of 10. Given the fact that P-3Cs are in service in at least 16 countries around the world, the U.S. is eager to know whether Taiwan will accept its offer as orders from other countries are piling up, Lee claimed. The P-3Cs are part of a proposed arms purchase from the U.S. The package was originally budgeted at NT$610.8 billion (US$18.23 billion) , but is now being considered at NT$480 billion due to currency changes and a decision not to build submarines included in the deal in Taiwan. The budget for the purchase has been stuck in the legislature because of opposition parties who think that the weapons are overpriced and will not approve the deal. |
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...[update]... MND special budget fails to win opposition support 2005-03-30 / Taiwan News, Staff Reporter / By Wang Chung-ming LINK Opposition lawmakers in the Legislature's Procedure Committee yesterday again blocked deliberation on a bill for the special NT$480 billion arms procurement budget, saying that it would too heavily swell the country's total national debt. The decision marked the second time that the bill has been sidelined, following the opening of the new legislative session in February. The arms package includes a Patriot anti-missile system, eight diesel-powered submarines, and 12 P3-C anti-submarine aircraft. The Ministry of National Defense's initial estimate of NT$610.8 billion was rejected by the Kuomintang and People First Party on grounds that it was as "too high." But despite an MND revision of the budget to NT$480 billion in a bid mostly to gain their support, the KMT and PFP changed their reasons for opposing the proposal. In last week's meeting of the committee, they claimed that they favored the idea of the funds being sourced under the annual budget, rather than a special budget. |
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March 26, 2005: In March, 2005, representatives from the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force met with officials from the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense and Taiwanese weapons contractors. This is part of the American Foreign Comparative Testing Program, established in 1980, to identify foreign weapons technology that can be used more quickly and cheaply than a American-created alternative. The program identifies mature foreign technologies that can be easily transferred to the U.S. military. Since its inception the U.S. has spent approximately $6 billion abroad. The latest mission to Taiwan was not to buy specific systems at this time, but to identify Taiwanese systems for potential future acquisition, in the next few years. Mentioned specifically was the need of the U.S. SOCOM (Special Operations Command), which manages acquisition and logistics of anti-terrorism weapons and systems for US commands worldwide. It was thought that SOCOM had brought with them a list of more than 300 items, including aircraft components, ammunition, laptop computers, satellite telephones, and infrared equipment.
Unstated, but likely a substantial part of this visit, is the message it sends to China regarding the dispute over Taiwanese independence. It was probably no coincidence that, during the visit, the local media reported efforts to increase pressure for the passage of a nearly $20 billion bill to pay for US weapons that have been held on the back burner since 2000. A government spokesman noted that China has just announced a 12.5 percent increase in its annual military spending. The Taiwanese government believes that to ensure continued Taiwanese freedom from outside aggression, his country must spend at least two-thirds as much of an increase as a potential aggressor in order to have a fighting chance of winning an armed conflict. To date, Taiwan remains far behind this ratio with China. However, the Ministry undoubtedly did itself no favors by continuing its pitch with the argument that defense issues may be just too important for a vote in the national legislature – a statement sure to inflame opposition to such a defense bill, which would provide to the island nation such weapons systems as the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile, 12 P-3C maritime patrol aircraft, and up to eight desperately needed modern air-independent propulsion submarines. The Ministry is going full bore with a three part effort in its campaign. It is not only brow-beating the legislature and individual legislators but also going directly to the public in print and on TV with such slogans as “one cup a day,” referring to an argument that if each Taiwanese foregoes just one cup of tea a day, that money would help in un-stalling the proposed weapons purchases. Opposition legislators have countered by asking the Ministry to start by cutting the $20 billion by up to one-third. China – against the background of its increasingly flammable warnings against Taiwanese sovereignty -- may succeed in doing more to boost Taiwan’s weapons budget than could the Taiwan Ministry of Defense and the US DOD alone. K.B. Sherman |
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Military will defend Taiwan, MND says
DEPOLITICIZATION: For the first time, the Ministry of National Defense said that it would defend the country from invasion regardless of the cause of a conflict By Rich Chang STAFF REPORTER Thursday, Apr 14, 2005 Vice Minister of National Defense Huo Shou-yeh (霍守業) yesterday said the military will fight to defend Taiwan regardless of what the cause of an invasion might be. Huo made the remark when asked by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Ting Shou-chung (丁守中) "will the military fight for Taiwan's independence" yesterday at the legislature. In the past, the ministry said the military would protect the Republic of China (ROC) and would fight for its survival. Yesterday was the first time it said the military would fight to protect Taiwan. Ting told Huo that, according a report on Taiwan's security published by the RAND Corp, the increase of independence-related divisions in Taiwan in recent years has been taken into consideration by China in its military policy toward Taiwan. Ting then asked how the ministry would deal with the political divisions in Taiwan, and whether the military would fight for the country if a war was caused by Taiwan's independence movement. "The issues regarding Taiwan's independence are internal political issues which should be resolved politically, and the military should be neutral. However, the military is responsible for defending against external military threats, and it will fight any invasion of Taiwan, regardless of what the cause for the invasion is," Huo said. Meanwhile, Huo yesterday announced that the Han Kuang No. 21 computer war games will take place next week, and that Chief of the General Staff Admiral Li Tien-yu (李天羽) is leading the preparations for the exercise at the Hengshan command center. Asked by several legislators to comment on recent military exchanges between Taiwan and the US or Japan, Hou said the military welcomed the announcement by the US and Japan that the Taiwan Strait was a common security concern, and also that he would like to see the two countries' intervene in the Taiwan Strait should any military crisis occur. But although a Chinese-language newspaper said yesterday that Dennis Blair, a former commander of the US' Pacific Command, would lead the US delegation to observe the exercises in Taipei, Hou declined to comment on who will lead the US team and how many US personnel will be in Taipei. He said the US had provided its evaluation of last year's computer war games, and the military has addressed the shortcomings the US had identified, particularly regarding the military's joint operations capabilities. Chinese-language newspapers have said the nation's military is preparing to conduct joint computer war games with the US and Japan, and that the military will link up with the US military's Pacific headquarters in Hawaii for the first time. LINK |
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until a few years ago Taiwans military was the party military of the KMT not the state, much like the PLA is the military of the CCP. Making the military political neutral was/is one of the greatest achievments of the DPP. |
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Taiwan in $400M Army Truck Order
(Source: Navistar International Corporation; issued April 14, 2005) WARRENVILLE, Ill. --- Navistar International Corporation today announced that its operating company International Truck and Engine Corporation in partnership with SanYang Industry Company LTD of Taiwan won a five-year contract worth approximately $400 million U.S. for the delivery of up to 5,000 trucks to the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense. The contract was awarded April 13 and is set to be signed within the next few weeks. Delivery of completed vehicles will begin in May 2006. SanYang is the primary contractor and International is a subcontractor. Parts and components for the trucks will be built and prepared into kits in the United States and assembled in Taiwan to meet local content requirements. The International 7400 4x4 vehicles with I-6 engines will be used in troop carrier and general cargo applications by Taiwan's armed forces. The new International vehicles will replace the M35 truck built by AM General for the past 30 years. |
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Taiwan Navy Could Hold Off Chinese 'for Two Weeks'
Associated Press, Apr. 27, 2005 link A compute-simulated war game has confirmed a Taiwanese military theory that the island's naval fleet - led by US-built destroyers - could hold on for at least two weeks in the event of a mainland Chinese attack, officials said yesterday. During the simulated drill, two US-built destroyers - to be acquired by Taiwan this year - and other naval ships engaged in a heated battle with some 40 Sukhoi-30 and other Chinese jets north of Taiwan, officials said. One Kidd-class destroyer was sunk by a rain of Chinese anti-ship missiles, officials said. But the destroyer was able to shoot down 19 missiles and 16 Chinese jets before being hit. A team of US military experts observed the five-day computer simulation, which was conducted in Taipei last week. 'The Kidd-class destroyer did a successful job covering the other Kidd-class destroyer and the rest of the naval fleet so they could drive back' the invading Chinese ships, said General Wu Se Hwei. The first two of four Kidd-class destroyers, built about 20 years ago and decommissioned by the US navy, are to join the Taiwanese navy by the end of the year. Designed to simultaneously battle aircraft, submarines and ships, the destroyers could greatly complicate any Chinese plans to blockade or invade Taiwan. |
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May 11, 2005: Taiwan arrested 17 military officers and civilians as suspects in a Chinese spy ring. The accused were apparently collecting information on what Taiwan knew about Chinese military capabilities. China's espionage efforts are widespread, using thousands of part-time volunteers, or students and businessmen coerced to "serve the state." As more foreigners become aware of this practice, and take a closer look at the activities of local Chinese, more espionage is discovered. Often it's as simple as graduate students or businessmen walking off with bits (or bunches) of confidential information. European and American universities and businesses have become alarmed at the extent of this theft, and don't know what to do to stop it. China is a major trading partner with the world's major industrial powers, and a major supplier of students to universities in these countries. Not all Chinese overseas are spies, but so many are, and an increasing number are being arrested and prosecuted. The Chinese government denies everything, and the espionage operation continues.
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May 13, 2005: Taiwan will begin mass production of its new Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile next year. The project has been kept secret, or as secret as possible, but details have leaked out. The Hsiung Feng III is apparently a one ton missile, with a range of 300 kilometers and a top speed about 2,200 kilometers an hour. Low flying and using a highly effective guidance and targeting system, the missile is meant to take out Chinese warships and transports while they are still far from Taiwan. The Hsiung Feng missiles are based on the American Harpoon design, but have been expanded considerably since the Hsiung Feng I. The missiles can also hit land targets, but until the latest version, this was not very practical because of the short range of the missiles. There is believed to be a slower, but longer range Hsiung Feng (the IIE), with a range of 500 kilometers, and cluster bomb warheads for destroying military targets on land. The Hsiung Feng III can also be launched from land, and mobile launchers for these missiles may end up being added to Taiwan’s defenses.
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Mock-up of the Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile
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It is very scary to see what China is doing to build up its Navy. They are constructing a large number of amphibious ships and troop transport ships at a very fast pace. I believe they preparing to invade Taiwan. If they did this, I am positive a large conflict between China and USA would be the result.
Besides the amphibious force, the Chinese are building up their combat ships as well, destroyers and cruisers. So, what are we doing to equal this chinese build up? We are closing bases!!! |
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Calm down, despite all of the modernization efforts, the Chinese still have a ways to go to achieve a true blue water navy. Their newest ships are catching up to the West in terms of technology, however there aren't a lot of these ships yet so if we took these ships out most of China's naval power would die with them. As for us closing bases, it in no way affects our ability to fight, the whole point of BRAC is to get rid of bases that have outlived their usefulness.
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TAIWAN HAS 9 DAYS TO BUY P-3C ANTI-SUB PLANES OR LOSE THE CHANCE: MND
Central News Agency 2005-05-23 16:00:54 Taipei, May 23 (CNA) The window of opportunity is closing for the ROC to purchase a squadron of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft from the United States, according to Minister of National Defense Lee Jye, who said that the U.S. has given Taiwan till the end of the month to buy the planes; otherwise, they will be sold elsewhere. Speaking at the Legislative Yuan, where opposition lawmakers have continued to block a bill on major arms procurements initiated by the Democratic Progressive Party administration, Lee said that the Ministry of National Defense has been notified via a "formal channel" of the situation. The bill covers three items to be purchased from the U.S. -- eight diesel-electric submarines, six Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries and a squadron of 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft. Lee also noted that although the U. S. authorities did not say anything about a change in the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan, "unofficial" channels from the United States say that "the possibility of a change exists." The defense ministry has promised the U.S. submarine sellers that Taiwan will give a definite answer on the order before the end of this month, Lee added. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2005/taiwan-050523-cna01.htm MND TO SUFFER SHORTFALL OF NT$309.3 BILLION: REPORT Central News Agency 2005-05-23 23:13:32 Taipei, May 23 (CNA) The Ministry of National Defense (MND) will suffer a shortfall of NT$309.3 billion over the next five years as the annual budget allocations for military purposes are expected to drop, according to an MND report released Monday. The report said that although the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) has registered an average 2.1 percent growth rate over the past five years, annual budgets allocated to military purposes have declined steadily. In 2001, the report said, military budget accounted for 2.8 percent of the GDP, but the ratio dropped to 2.4 percent this year. With a view to safeguarding national security, the report said, the MND will continue to ask the Cabinet to make annual military budgets account for 3 percent to 3.5 percent of the GDP in the future. According to the report, regular military budgets for the next five years from 2006 to 2010, are estimated at NT$1.297 trillion. However, the military actually needs more than NT$1.606 trillion to maintain its operations, leaving a shortfall of NT$309.3 billion. http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2005/taiwan-050523-cna04.htm |
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June 2, 2005: Taiwan’s defenses may fail not because of a lack of weapons, but because of a lack of ammunition. The Taiwanese legislature has been stalled over proposals to buy more (very expensive) new weapons (eight diesel-electric submarines, 12 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, and a dozen Patriot air and missile defense systems). But now another procurement issue has flared up in Taiwan, the lack of ammunition. Taiwanese media is awash in stories about ammunition shortages. The United States has long warned Taiwan that it needed more missiles, in particular, if the island were to hold out for the 5-10 days it would take for American naval and air forces to arrive. No one ever came right out and said it, but the Taiwanese seemed to assume that the United States would immediately fly in thousands of needed air-to-air, SAM (Surface to Air) and anti-ship missiles once China attacked.
Maintaining a large stock (a “war reserve”) of ammo is never popular. That’s because the stuff has a short shelf life. Missiles and artillery shells degrade over time, even with maintenance. The problem is that the chemicals that are used for the propellants (in missiles, artillery or small arms ammo) and explosives (missile warheads and artillery shells) are unstable and degrade over time. Most missiles are built to last, with proper care and storage, for ten years. Artillery ammo, depending on the component (fuze, propellant, explosives), lasts 5-20 years. As the stuff gets older, even if well cared for and not past its expire date, it becomes less reliable. When it reaches the expire date, you usually fire it off in practice. This provides good, but expensive, training. Keep it beyond it's expire date, and some of the stuff becomes downright dangerous for the users. The Taiwanese legislature would have no problem with paying for emergency deliveries of missiles, and they know that the fighting in Iraq has not depleted American inventories of missiles Taiwan would need (air-to-air, SAMs and anti-ship). Perhaps arrangements have already been quietly made to make those air freight deliveries. But these may not be quick enough. Taiwan only has about 900 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles on hand, for over 300 first line jet fighters. China can mass over a thousand fighters on their side of the Taiwan Straights for their initial attack. Taiwanese pilots are better trained, and perhaps expect to take down many of the less modern Chinese fighters with cannon, instead of missiles. That can be dangerous for the attacker, getting in close like that. But with their small supply of missiles (the Taiwanese also have nearly a thousand air-to-air missiles of various other types), cannon will be the only option after a few days. But China has several thousand fighters it can send in to replace losses. In a war of attrition, Taiwan could lose control of the air. Taiwan also has low stocks of artillery ammo, although they justify that by putting lots of effort, and money, into building up their air and naval forces. The Chinese can’t walk on water, they must control the air over the Taiwan Straights in order to get troops ashore on Taiwan. But there’s always the chance that the Chinese marines will hit the Taiwanese coast before the American missile resupply flights arrive. If you don't have a lot of artillery shells, you can lose the ground war as well. http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/howtomakewar/default.asp?target=HTLOG.HTM |
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