Serbia-Montenegro: What's Behind The 'Robbery Of The Century'?

By Patrick Moore

Serbia and Montenegro has been rocked in recent weeks by a scandal involving corruption in the Defense Ministry. The affair has already begun to impact on Serbian domestic politics and on relations between Belgrade and Podgorica.
Defense Minister Prvoslav Davinic said in Belgrade on 8 September that he has handed his resignation to President Svetozar Marovic, RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages Service reported (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 9 September 2005). The minister added, however, that he informed the president and Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica that initial investigations into a corruption scandal allegedly involving his ministry's purchase of unnecessary equipment for the army at inflated prices from the Mile Dragic company in Zrenjanin have revealed no criminal wrongdoing.

The Defense Ministry meanwhile announced that it is forming its own commission to investigate the allegations. The Serbian government agreed at a meeting that the Mile Dragic affair must be investigated completely, adding that the matter is now in the hands of a special prosecutor whose findings are expected soon. In Podgorica, the Montenegrin governing coalition reiterated its position that it will not take a stand until more information is known.

But Davinic's resignation was not discussed at the 8 September meeting of the government of Serbia and Montenegro. Before the resignation can take effect, the cabinet must accept it and nominate a successor. Parliamentary speaker Zoran Sami then has between five and 15 days in which to place the issue on the legislature's agenda. If the parliament approves the change with a majority among both Serbian legislators and Montenegrin ones, it takes effect. Until it does, Davinic remains in office.

It is not clear exactly how matters will unfold. Davinic previously suggested that he would resign under certain conditions but later withdrew the offer. Furthermore, there appears to be no consensus among the leaders in Belgrade and Podgorica regarding a successor. The Belgrade-born Davinic is a specialist in nuclear disarmament and international relations with degrees from former Yugoslav and U.S. universities. He worked for the United Nations from 1976-99.

The affair that seems likely to topple him from his latest post developed in earnest on 5 September, when Serbia's special prosecutor's office for combating organized crime told the police to begin collecting documents relating to the recent decision by Davinic to award a $370 million contract to Mile Dragic. The Serbian government called on the relevant government bodies not to carry out the agreement.

Serbian Finance Minister Mladjan Dinkic had disclosed on 2 September that the contract requires the government to buy over a five-year period 74,000 combat helmets and 69,000 flak jackets for an army of 28,000 at a time when a former manager at Mile Dragic said that the army already has 50,000 Dragic-supplied helmets and a similar number of flak jackets in its warehouses. The new contract also calls on the military to buy 500 pilot's jackets for an air force of about 30 planes, many of which are probably not operational. Dinkic called the affair the "robbery of the century."

Davinic thereupon accused Dinkic of "high treason" for revealing "military secrets." Some media reports suggested that part of the payment to Mile Dragic would be in real estate, of which the military owns some choice parcels.

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said on 2 September that the wastefulness attributed to Davinic cannot be allowed in a country where "every single dinar" must be spent wisely. Serbian President Boris Tadic, who is a former defense minister, said that Davinic's position has become untenable, adding that the scandal must not be allowed to weaken the joint state. Speaker Sami of the joint parliament said on 4 September that Davinic should go.

Dinkic argued that Serbia pays more than 94 percent of the defense budget and appealed to Montenegro's leaders not to try to keep Davinic in office. The Democratic Party of Serbia, (DSS) the Democratic Party, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), and Davinic's own G-17 Plus party called for his resignation. G-17 Plus, of which Dinkic is also a member, expelled Davinic from its ranks.

On 5 September, however, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic told reporters in Niksic that the controversy surrounding Davinic shows that Serbian leaders want to control the joint state in order to "preserve their greater Serbian illusions." On 3 September, the joint state's Deputy Foreign Minister Predrag Boskovic, who is from Montenegro, dismissed calls to replace Davinic, saying in Podgorica that "a rotation of ministers is not a priority for Montenegro."

The controversy showed no signs of abating, despite a statement by Marovic on 6 September that it could cause "the collapse" of the joint state.

Dinkic said meanwhile that Defense Ministry officials continue to deny his investigators access to documents relating to the deal. He added that Serbian tax police have nonetheless determined that the company overcharged the government by about $100 million over the firm's usual prices. For example, he noted, Mile Dragic billed the ministry $312 per helmet instead of the usual $206, and $2,121 per flak jacket rather than $780. Elsewhere, the Mile Dragic company again denied that the charges it agreed with the ministry were excessive.

Djukanovic said in Podgorica that Dinkic is wrong in asserting that the equipment deal was largely the work of Montenegrin officials in the Defense Ministry. Djukanovic said that Dinkic used a "tired argument" in suggesting that Montenegrins enjoy parity with Serbs in decision making in the ministry even though Serbia pays nearly 95 percent of the costs.

Meanwhile in Belgrade, Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus, who heads G-17 Plus, denied recent charges by Djukanovic that the Davinic affair amounts to an attempt by Serbia to take control of the joint state's institutions. Elsewhere, the opposition Serbian Radical Party (SRS) called for an investigation of the affair by the joint state's parliament.

Sources close to Dinkic and Kostunica portray the affair as an effort to show that the military is finally being made accountable to civilian authorities and is no longer allowed to spend as it pleases. But other speculation in Belgrade suggests that the Mile Dragic affair is part of a much larger picture involving not only corruption in the arms trade but also jockeying among Serbian politicians in anticipation of elections later in 2005 and rivalry between the leaderships in Montenegro and Serbia.

According to one theory, the $370 million contract was part of a larger deal in which large quantities of ammunition from the army's stocks were sold to a foreign buyer -- possibly a contractor working in Iraq -- with Mile Dragic acting as a go-between. The contract allegedly amounted to a compensation agreement for Mile Dragic for its role in a deal in which ammunition was sold below market prices in order to secure a partnership with the foreign buyer. According to this view, much money passed through many hands in the course of the exchange, and some of it found its way into private pockets.

Some observers in Belgrade say that, if this theory is true, it would not be a unique among cases of corruption in Serbia, most of which never come to public attention. What allegedly brought this particular affair to the surface, according to this theory, was a desire of Dinkic to upstage Labus within G-17 Plus in preparation for the upcoming elections. Davinic was considered a protege of Labus.

Another factor in the publicity surrounding the Mile Dragic affair, according to some Belgrade observers, was Kostunica's intention to reduce Montenegrin influence in the Defense Ministry by ousting a minister who had supposedly let his Montenegrin deputy Vukasin Maras run things behind the scenes. This theory also maintains that Kostunica had a particular score to settle with Davinic and Maras over their decision to conduct an investigation into the use of a military helicopter to help build a controversial Serbian Orthodox chapel in Montenegro without the permission of the authorities there (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 12 August 2005). Kostunica, according to this interpretation, is close to the Serbian Orthodox hierarchy in Montenegro under Metropolitan Amfilohije.

The Mile Dragic affair has so far produced more questions and theories than hard facts and answers. Given the potential financial and political stakes involved, it is likely to make headlines in Serbia for some weeks to come.

Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. http://www.rferl.org

Southeast Asian Nations to Begin Air Patrols Over Malacca Strait

By Nancy-Amelia Collins
Jakarta
08 September 2005

Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand agreed Thursday to begin air patrols over the Strait of Malacca to boost security against piracy and terrorism in one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

The four nations will each donate two planes for what they have dubbed the "Eye in the Sky" plan to operate coordinated patrols over the busy Strait of Malacca.

The aerial patrols will begin next week. All flights will carry a representative of each country to survey the narrow waterway, which carries more than a quarter of the world's trade.

Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman Marty Natalegawa says all four countries hope the enhanced cooperation will boost security.

"This has taken principally the form of coordinated patrol. Until recently, most of the so-called coordinated patrol has been of naval vessels but now the idea is to elevate that further, actually to coordinated patrols in terms if air surveillance, so called "Eye in the Sky" approach," said Mr. Natalegawa. "But the aim is the same as before, namely to secure and enhance security in the Straits of Malacca."

Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand all border the strait. Its narrow channels, shallow reefs, and thousands of tiny islands make it vulnerable to pirate attacks.

There are concerns that ships in the strait could be vulnerable to attack by terrorists, who could use captured fuel or chemical tankers as floating bombs. The presence in the region of the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah, which is linked to the al-Qaida network, has heightened such fears.

The maritime watchdog group, the International Maritime Bureau, has said in its annual reports the Malacca Straits has also seen an increase in pirate attacks over the past several years. Lloyd's, the leading insurance company for ships, has placed the strait on its list of most dangerous waterways.

More than 50,000 vessels a year transit the narrow Malacca Strait carrying a large portion of the world's oil.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/200...mil-050908-voa01.htm

September 12, 2005: On September 5th, a Russian Su-33 fighter slid off the deck of the carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, and into the water, during training exercises in the north Atlantic. A broken cable was responsible, and the aircraft was lost. This happened right after the Su-33 had landed, and the arresting cable that prevents the aircraft from continuing on off the carrier, failed.

The Kuznetsov is the first of its class, and the sister ship of the Varyag, which is now owned by China. Russia began building in the Kuznetsov 1980s. Originally, the Kuznetsovss; were conceived of as 90,000 ton, nuclear powered ships, similar to American carriers (complete with steam catapults). Instead, because of the cost, and the complexity of modern (American style) carriers, the Russians were forced to scale back their goals, and ended up with the 55,000 ton (full load ) ships that lacked steam catapults, and used a “ski jump” flight deck instead. Nuclear power was dropped, but the Kuznetsov class was still a formidable design. It contains 3,800 compartments, and 16 kilometers of internal passageways. The thousand foot long carrier normally carries a dozen Su-33 jet fighters, 14 Ka-27PL anti-submarine helicopters, two electronic warfare helicopters and two search and rescue helicopters. But the ship can carry up to 36 Su-33s and sixteen helicopters instead. The ship carries 2,500 tons of aviation fuel, allowing it to generate 500-1,000 aircraft and helicopter sorties. Crew size is 2,500 (or 3,000 with a full aircraft load.) Because of the expense, and risk of accidents with an inexperienced crew, the Kuznetsov didn’t get to sea much for many years. But the Russians have had enough experience with Kuznetsov to encourage them to get develop plans for two more, larger, carriers. These new ships, which are not expected until the next decade, may look like current carriers, but will probably be quite different inside. For one thing, the Russians will arm the 2010 carriers with more missiles and robotic aircraft (combat UAVs.) Even the Kuznetsov had twelve aircraft size P-500 Shipwreck anti-ship missiles. These were launched from tubes mounted beneath the flight deck.

The Su-33 is roughly equal to the American F-18, and is basically a carrier version of the Su-27.

http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/howtomakewar/default.asp?target=HTNAVAI.HTM

September 12, 2005: Recently, a Chinese surface group was detected by a Japanese P-3C in disputed waters near the Senkaku Islands. The group, which consisted of a Sovremenny-class destroyer, two Jianghu I-class missile frigates, a replenishment ship, and a missile observation support ship, was a reasonably powerful force. It does lead to the question: Who would prevail in a fight with Japan over the Senkaku Islands?

Such a battle would primarily involve the navies of both sides. Each operates on a different premise. Japan has a force of destroyers that are highly capable in anti-surface and anti-submarine operations. Japan’s guided missile destroyers are also highly capable anti-air vessels.

Japan has a total of 30 destroyers, nine guided-missile destroyers, and nine frigates. At least two of the older Tachikaze-class guided-missile destroyers will be replaced by the new Atago-class destroyers. Japan also has 16 modern diesel-electric submarines.

The Chinese navy is larger in numbers – carrying 25 destroyers and 45 frigates. However, of these 25 destroyers, 16 are the obsolete Luda class. The same is true for the Chinese frigates – two-thirds of them are the obsolete Jianghu-class ships. These are equipped with antiquated HY-2 missiles, which are copies of the old SS-N-2 Styx – state of the art for 1960. These days, a Styx is an easy kill for any modern surface-to-air missile. China has 65 diesel-electric submarines, but 52 of them are obsolete Romeo and Ming-class submarines. China’s Han-class SSNs are also old and noisy. Again, in terms of modern vessels, China is outnumbered.

Another factor is air cover. The disputed waters are within 300 kilometers of Okinawa. This is easily within the combat radius of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force’s F-1, F-4EJ Kai, F-15J, and F-2 fighters. Japan has a major air base in Naha, and there is also Kadena Air Force Base, where the United States Air Force keeps a wing of F-15s. The oldest aircraft in service with Japan are the F-4EJ Kais and F-1s – the latter are being replaced by the F-2.

China’s fighters tend to be very old. The only real modern fighters are the J-11 (Russian Su-27) and the Su-30MKK (an Su-27 variant). Japan is almost at parity in terms of numbers (187 F-15J/DJs and 140 F-2s to 380 J-11/Su-30MKK in Chinese service). Japan has superb pilots as well, who get plenty of training. Chinese pilots get less flying time, although they are increasing their training.

Japan also has E-2 and E-767 airborne early warning aircraft that they have years of practice using, while China has only recently acquired Russian A-50 Mainstays.

In a straight naval-air fight over the Senkaku Islands, Japan has an advantage, even if they are on their own. While China is modernizing, Japan is not standing still, modernizing its military and keeping a qualitative edge over its larger neighbor. – Harold C. Hutchison (hchutch@ix.netcom.com)

http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/howtomakewar/default.asp?target=htworld.htm

Pakistan to get two F-16s by year end

IRNA - Islamic Republic News Agency

Islamabad, Sept 9, IRNA
Pakistan-Fighter Planes
Pakistan will get two US F-16 fighters by the end of the current year under a landmark arms deal, visiting Senior Vice President of Business Development of Lockheed Martin Corporation, Robert Rice said here Friday.

He made the announcement in a meeting with Senior Federal Minister and Minister for Defence, Rao Sikandar Iqbal, an official statement said.

Rice informed the minister that the Congress would hopefully approve the provision of 75 F-16 aircraft to Pakistan.

The minister told Rice that relations between Pakistan and the US were moving in the right direction and with the provision of aircraft to Pakistan by United States the bonds of friendship between the two countries would be further strengthened, the statement said.

The US said in March it would resume sales - suspended by an embargo imposed in 1990 over Islamabad's nuclear weapons programme.

The F-16s are seen as a reward for support Pakistan has given for the US-led war on al-Qaeda.

India, which has fought three wars with Pakistan, has said the deal upsets the balance of power in the region.

Pakistan already has about 30 F-16 fighters, delivered before the embargo, but was anxious to increase its fleet.

Pakistan says the jets were "being provided to Pakistan from the ready available stock" at a "very nominal" cost.

Some media reports have said Pakistan wants 25 of the planes about $25m each.

In March, President Musharraf said it wanted as many as it could afford.

Relations between Pakistan and the US have improved greatly since 9/11/2001.

The US lifted its arms embargo shortly afterwards and now says Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally.

India has criticized the F-16 sales, saying they will disturb the regional balance of power and hinder its own peace moves with Pakistan.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/pakistan...an-050910-irna01.htm

September 13, 2005: The Japanese government reported that, last month, a Chinese electronic intelligence aircraft had been spotted off the coast of southern Japan. This growing contact with the Chinese military is encouraging Japanese legislators to increase military spending, and expanding the Japanese military.

http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=CHINA.HTM

Good...they should have realized that about 10 years ago!

September 15, 2005: Australia faces some threats. One of these is from Indonesia, often due to the fact that these two countries have a dispute over a maritime boundary in the Timor Sea. Australia also has a 1,850-kilometer wide maritime identification zone that has raised some hackles among its neighbors.

The major threat to Australian interests would be maritime. Australia, as an island nation (albeit a large one), that relies on maritime trade. This is the same reliance faced by the United Kingdom, and Japan. The major potential opponent is Indonesia. While conflicting claims in the Timor Sea could result in a war, a flash point that is just as likely is the newly (since 2002) independent nation of East Timor, where an Australian-led peacekeeping force stopped violence by militias supported by the Indonesian military. The UN peacekeeping force has been withdrawn as of May, 2005.

A conflict over the maritime boundaries would involve naval and air forces. In both areas, Australia has a significant advantage over Indonesia in terms of quality, and to a lesser, extent, quantity. The Australian Navy boasts fourteen frigates (six Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates that have been modernized to carry SM-2 and Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles and eight Anzac-class frigates, which will be modernized to carry Evolved Sea Sparrows and Harpoons). These frigates are all modern designs, and are manned by superbly-trained crews. Indonesia has thirteen frigates, only six of which, the Ahmed Yani-class ships, are reasonably modern (carrying Sea Cat surface-to-air missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles). The other seven Indonesian frigates (three Tribal-class frigates and four Claude Jones-class frigates), are only armed with guns, and do not have modern fire-control systems. Indonesia also has four light frigates (armed with Exocet anti-ship missiles), and sixteen Parchim I-class corvettes. In terms of submarines, Indonesia has two Type 209-class submarines, but Australia has six Collins-class vessels. The Australian submariners have trained against American carrier battle groups – and have often “torpedoed” the carriers in exercises.

The air forces are also miles apart – primarily in quality. Australia has 32 F-111C/G (essentially the same as the FB-111) and 71 AF/A-18A/B Hornets in the inventory. These aircraft are backed by airborne early warning aircraft (four to seven modified Boeing 737s carrying a phased-array radar) and tankers (modified 707s). The RAAF’s combat aircraft carry some of the latest weapons, including laser-guided bombs and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Contrast that to Indonesia’s air force, which primarily operates the older F-5 fighter and A-4 attack plane. Its modern fighter force consists of 16 F-16A, 2 Su-27SK, and 2 Su-30MK fighters, plus 16 Hawk 209 light attack jets. Again, Australia has more combat aircraft, which are better. Australian pilots have much more training than the Indonesian pilots, which makes the gap in capabilities even wider in Australia’s favor.

Should a conflict over East Timor erupt, the relative armies would come into play. Australia will be in the position of relying on the quality of its forces to overcome the quantitative advantage Indonesia has. The Indonesian army (196,000) is nearly four times the size of the entire Australian Defense Force (53,000). The Australian Army uses the Leopard main battle tank, to be replaced by the M1A2 Abrams. Fighting and winning when outnumbered is something the Australians have done in the past. In 1951 a battalion of Australian troops assisted a Canadian infantry battalion and an American tank company in defeating a Chinese division at the Battle of Kapyong. In 1966, two Australian infantry platoons defeated a Viet Cong battalion in the Battle of Long Tan.

Indonesia’s military has much less experience and gets very little pay, so often Indonesian soldiers have been setting up roadblocks and shaking down drivers. The Indonesian military’s combat experience in dealing with the Aceh and East Timor (often against civilians) will not help much against the well-trained Australian Army. Australia is more than capable of taking care of itself in a fight with Indonesia. – Harold C. Hutchison (hchutch@ix.netcom.com)

http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/howtomakewar/default.asp?target=htworld.htm

quote:

While conflicting claims in the Timor Sea could result in a war, a flash point that is just as likely is the newly (since 2002) independent nation of East Timor, where an Australian-led peacekeeping force stopped violence by militias supported by the Indonesian military. The UN peacekeeping force has been withdrawn as of May, 2005.

Given the internal problems facing Indonesia...I suggest most unlikely.

TYPE 83 152MM SELF-PROPELLED GUN-HOWITZER

The Type 83 is the self-propelled version of the Type 66 towed 152mm gun-howitzer mounted on a Type 321 tracked chassis. Designed to provide a mobile, long-range, direct/indirect suppression firepower for armoured and motorised troops at division level, it is the first modern self-propelled artillery system in service with the PLA. The latest variant of the Type 83 is capable of firing laser-guided ammunition based on Russian technology.

PROGRAMME

The Type 83 152mm self-propelled gun-howitzer was developed in the late 1970s in response to the PLA’s urgent requirement for a modern self-propelled artillery system with full track chassis and sealed turret. The development project was completed in 1978, but the design was not finalised until November 1983 due to problems in the semi-automatic loader.

The Type 83 was first seen in public in the 1984 National Day military parade held in Beijing, and entered operational service with the PLA in late 1984. The artillery system is normally found in the artillery regiment organic to an armoured division. Each division has a Type 83 battalion, which operates 18 guns.

The main gun of the Type 83 is based on the Type 66 152mm towed gun-howitzer. The artillery system is designed to provide continuous firepower to support the operations of motorised infantry and armoured troops; to suppress and defeat enemy personnel and weapons; to destroy enemy defence fortifications; to engage enemy artillery, tank, and armoured combat vehicles.

DESIGN

The layout of the Type 83 follows the general pattern of most modern self-propelled artillery systems, with six pairs of roadwheels, the engine and drive sprocket at the front, and the large square turret at the rear. There are extensive storage points around the hull and turret to carry 30 rounds. There are two periscopes, on of which is fitted with night vision channel. The crew communicates with each other using the Type 803 intercom system. The turret elevation is from +62 to 0 degrees with 360 degree traverse.

ARMAMENT

The main gun of the Type 83 is developed from the Type 66 152mm towed gun-howitzer, added with a fume extractor and autoloader. The maximum rate of fire is 5 rounds/minute. It is capable of firing all standard types of 152mm rounds, including high explosive fragmentation (HE-FRAG), HE-FRAG with base gas bleed, cluster projectiles with fragmentation submunitions and base gas bleed, and indigenous laser-guided 152mm projectile.

China obtained the Russian Krasnopol laser-guided projectile technology in the 1990s, and has successfully developed its own 152/155mm laser-guided ammunitions. Designed to defeat armoured vehicles and weapon emplacements, the projectile has inertial mid-course guidance and semi-active laser homing. The projectile has a range of 3~20km, and can hit a target by the first shot without registration.

Secondary weapons include a roof-mounted 12.7-mm/50-calibre antiaircraft machine gun with a maximum fire-range of 2,000m; a 7.62 mm coaxial machine gun, with a maximum fire-range of 1,800m and a fire rate of 250 rounds/min. Additionally inside the turret there is also a Type 69 40mm rocket propelled grenade (RPG) launcher.

PROPULSION

The Type 83 is powered by a 382kW WR4B-12V150LB four-stroke, liquid-cooled diesel engine. The max road speed is 55km/h, and the max range is 450km.

SPECIFICATIONS

Calibre: 152.4mm
Barrel length: 29 calibre (approximately)
Muzzle speed : 655m/s
Maximum Firing Range: (unassisted): 17.2km; (assisted) 21.5km
Rate of Fire: intense 5 rounds/min; sustained 1 round/min
Crew: 5
Fire Control: Direct or indirect firing with optical/night vision sighting
Battle Weight: N/A
Speed: Road speed 55km/h
Ammunition: HE-FRAG, HE-FRAG with base gas bleed, laser-guided projectile
Onboard ammunition load: 30 rounds

Date Last Updated: 18 Sept 05

http://sinodefence.com/army/artillery/type83sp_152mm.asp

152/155MM LASER-GUIDED ARTILLERY WEAPON SYSTEM

China obtained the Russian Krasnopol semi-active laser-guided projectile technology in the 1990s. The Krasnopol technology has been used to develop China’s own indigenous laser-guided projectiles. The resulting 152/155mm laser-guided artillery weapon system was first revealed in 2004.

The 152/155mm laser-guided artillery weapon system is designed to engage tanks and armoured combat vehicles (static or at a speed of up to 36km/h), and other point targets such as artillery battery, C4I centres, defensive fortifications, and surface ships. The weapon system enables a tube artillery unit to fire at individual targets (to include pinpoint targets such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, field fortifications) with a high probability of a first-round kill. Thus, the traditional requirement for an area fire or artillery barrage is eliminated.

The weapon system can also be used to fire at group targets using the same gun settings computed relative to the centre of mass of the group target. Additionally, the laser-guided projectile can be fired without meteorological and ballistic data at a range of 10~12km.

China NORINCO has revealed its 155mm laser-guided projectiles for export market, but it is believed that the 152mm projectile has also been developed for the uses of the PLA. The weapon system can be operated with both towed (Type 66 152mm, Type 89 155mm) and self-propelled (Type 83 152mm, PLZ-45 155mm) gun-howitzers. Its general performance is believed to be comparable to that of the Russian Krasnopol.

DESIGN

The laser-guided artillery weapon system complex includes the 152/155mm projectile, a tripod-mounted laser target designator (LTD), and the shot synchronization system which includes the battery command post and forward observation post. Once a target has been detected by a forward observer, one to two rounds are fired for target engagement. At the initial phase of the flight, projectile fly under the inertial effect force. As the projectile approaches the target, the forward observer illuminates the targets using the LTD, which has an effective range of 500~5,000m.

A signal confirming the firing of the projectiles is transmitted from the firing unit to the forward observer via a communication channel. The forward observer continues to illuminate the target with a laser beam during the terminal phase of the projectile’s flight. The projectile's gyroscopic homing head locks onto the target beam, and aerodynamic control surfaces (located on the projectile body) guide the projectile to the target. Once the target is destroyed, the forward observer can shift to another target and continue to engage either pre-planned targets or targets of opportunity.

EFFECTIVENESS

The 1991 and 2003 Gulf Wars have demonstrated that the precision strike weapons has a revolutionary impact on the development and application of combined arms doctrine and tactics. The United States demonstrated that the force that initially attains and maintains fire superiority has the advantage of freedom of manoeuvre and reduced casualties from enemy artillery fire. The artillery precision weapons such as guided projectiles provide users with the capability of target destruction at lower expenditure rates and shorter firing times. The potential low-cost proliferation of these weapons offers a capability to successfully attack and destroy enemy targets ranging from thinly protected C 4I systems to armoured vehicles at a critical place and time in a future battlefield. Thus, these weapons can also become a force multiplier for small forces (guerrilla, etc.) against a larger, technically advanced force in low intensity conflicts or military operations.

However, the laser-guided projectiles also have their limitations. Synchronisation of information between the firing unit and the forward observer is absolutely critical to the effective operation of the artillery weapon system. The likelihood of a laser-guided projectile achieving a first-round hit is severely reduced if the projectile is not delivered on time. Even the likelihood of a second-round hit is diminished due to the variation in location of a moving target. It takes a great amount of training for the artillery units to learn how to pre-plan kill zones and the forward observer to predetermine the points of engagement covered by the projectile's seeker footprint (about 2km in diameter).

Not only the forward observer (LTD operator) has to develop or learn the skills required to determine and prioritise the threats of different enemy targets in the battlefield, he also has to learn to determine conditions that either enhance or degrade the use of the munitions and plan a kill zones to maximise the killing effects. This again requires a significant amount of training and practice.

Another major shortcoming of employing the laser-guided projectile (as well as other laser-guided munitions) is the requirement to illuminate the target with the laser beam for five to fifteen seconds. Long target-illumination times enable enemy targets equipped with laser warning detectors to effectively employ countermeasures that prevent the target from further illumination by the laser beam. Additionally, the effectiveness of the LTD is also easily affected by the smoke and dust commonly seen in the battlefield.

SPECIFICATIONS

Calibre: 152mm or 155mm
Range: 20km
Warhead type: HE-FRAG
Target attack profile: Diving top attack
Flight phases: (Initial) free flight; (middle) inertial; (final) laser-guidance

Date Last Updated: 20 Sept 05

September 21, 2005: Russia lost two warplanes in two weeks this month, and under somewhat mysterious circumstances. On September 5th, a Su-33 went over the side when the arresting cable snapped while the aircraft was landing on Russias only aircraft carrier. On September 17th, seven Su-27s were flying over the Baltic, towards Kaliningrad. The fighters were accompanied by an A-50 "AWACS" aircraft, and were engaged in a military exercise. The scenario was that NATO had attacked Russia, and had knocked out the air traffic control facilities at Kaliningrad. The A-50 and Su-27s were reinforcements. Suddenly, one of the Su-27s veered off into Lithuanian air space, and crashed near the coast, just short of Kaliningrad, some 190 kilometers northwest of the capital. The pilot ejected, landed safely, and was picked up by the police. All this happened in daylight and clear weather. The pilot, a 36 year old major with a lot of flying experience, said he had a problem with his navigation equipment. Lithuania is conducting an investigation. The other seven Russian aircraft landed safely in Kaliningrad, and apparently no one contacted Lithuanian military or civil aviation authorities during the incident. Russian and Lithuanian authorities are trying to sort out what actually happen.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20050921.aspx

Y-8J / SKYMASTER AIRBORNE SURVEILLANCE AIRCRAFT

China purchased 6~8 Skymaster airborne surveillance radar systems from British electronics manufacturer Racal (now Thales) in the 1990s. These radar systems are fitted on the Shaanxi Y-8J turboprop aircraft for maritime surveillance and early warning missions. The PLA Navy is currently operating at least two Y-8J, which are deployed at Dachang naval air base near Shanghai.

PROGRAMME

The Racal Skymaster is the first modern airborne surveillance radar system purchased by the PLA. Building on its relation with the PLA through the 1980s sale of its Cymberline artillery radar, Racal sold 6~8 sets of its Skymaster radar systems to China for about US$66 million in the 1990s. First revealed in August 1996, this purchase came after a lengthy evaluation of contending airborne radar by the PLA. The smaller size of this radar and its attendant equipment make it very easy to be integrated onto China's Shaanxi Y-8 turboprop aircraft.

Although the Skymaster radar was sold under civilian name to assist China’s coastal anti-smuggling missions, by 2001 Internet-source image was appearing of the resulting Y-8J maritime surveillance aircraft operated by the PLA Navy to locate enemy targets for its Luda and Luhu class destroyers in naval exercises. At the aircraft’s normal cruising altitude, the Y-8J can have a 200-mile range, giving it a potential footprint 400 miles wide. The aircraft could also assist surface ships to locate enemy targets beyond the shipborne radar horizon, and vector offensive and defensive aircraft in combat.

So far only two Y-8J/Skymaster planes (serial number 9281 and 9301) have been spotted in active service. They are stationed at Dachang naval air base near Shanghai to support the operations of the PLA Navy East Sea Fleet. They are reported to have been chasing the U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier combat groups in the East China Sea.

SKYMASTER RADAR

The Skymaster radar is an improved variant of the Racal Searchwater radar, which is fitted to the RAF Nimrod MR.2 and Sea King AEW.2 for AEW roles. The radar system is designed to detect air and surface targets in the sea, and vector friendly aircraft and ships. Accommodated in the aircraft’s nose radome, the I-band pulse Doppler radar has a detection range of 85km (look-down mode) or 110km (look-up mode). With its 360 degree coverage, the system is capable of detecting objects as small as submarine periscope within its range.

The radar system has two control stations, with one for detection and the other for interceptor guiding. The control stations are equipped with digital data processing, 40mm colour displays, and touch-screen controls. The system is capable of detecting enemy targets, identification of friend or foe (IFF), and coordinating intercepting routes.

The system utilises the Thorn EMI 32-bit microprocessor and distributed processing structure. Radar, inertial (INS) navigation, and other avionics are connected by the MIL1553B databus. The whole system is powered by an 8kW generator.

Y-8J

The Y-8J is based on the Shaanxi Y-8C turboprop transport aircraft, which itself is a copy of the Soviet/Russian An-12 Cub. The aircraft has high-mounted wings with four turboprop engines mounted under the wings' leading edges. The original glassed-in nose on the Y-8 is replaced by a large radome to accommodate the radar antenna on the Y-8J. The tail cargo door and loading ramp are removed on the Y-8J. Like the Y-8C, the Y-8J is also fitted with a pressured cabin for its flight and mission crews.

POWERPLANT

The aircraft is powered by four Zhuzhou Wojiang-6 turboprop engines mounted on the wings, each rated at 4,250shp. The aircraft carries 22,910kg fuel in its internal tanks, with no external fuel tank available.

SPECIFICATIONS

Flight crew: 3~4
Wingspan: 38.0m
Length: 34.02m
Height: 11.6m
Empty weight: 35,488kg
Normal take-off weight: 54,000kg
Maximum take-off weight: 61,000kg
Cruising speed: 550km/h
Maximum speed: 662km/h
Service ceiling: 10,400m
Max climb rate: 10m/s (sea level)
Range: Ferry range 5,620km
Flight endurance: 10.5 hours
Runway: Take-off 1,270m; landing 1,050m

Date Last Updated: 16 September 05

http://sinodefence.com/airforce/specialaircraft/y8j.asp

Y-9 MULTI-PURPOSE TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT

At the September 2005 International Aviation Expo held in Beijing, Shaanxi Aircraft Industry (Group) Co. Ltd unveiled its Y-9 multi-purpose transport aircraft design. A substantial redesign of the Shaanxi Y-8 (Chinese copy of the An-12 Cud), the aircraft was initially revealed to the public at the 2002 Zhuhai Air Show under the name of Y-8-X concept transport. It is said to be comparable to the U.S. Lockheed Martin C-130J transport in general performance.

PROGRAMME

The development of the Y-8X began in 2001 to meet the requirements of the PLA Air Force for a capable and advanced medium-size tactical transport aircraft to replace the ageing Y-8. The project aims to develop a multi-purpose turboprop transport aircraft that approaches or in some aspects exceeds the performance of the U.S. C-130J. The development is believed to have been assisted by The Ukraine-based Antonov Aeronautical Scientific-technical Complex (ASTC) aircraft company.

During the 2005 Beijing International Aviation Expo, Shaanxi revealed more details about the Y-8X, now re-designated Y-9. Compared to the Y-8, the new aircraft features a more specious cargo cabin, fast loading/uploading system, improved WJ-6C turboprop engines, six-blade propellers, and a “glass cockpit”. The aircraft can be used for both military and civil flights.

DESIGN

The Y-9 ’s wings are high-mounted with four turboprop engines mounted under the wings’ leading edges. The aircraft utilises six-blade JL-4 propellers made of composite materials. The rear cargo door, which also serves as a ramp, allows cargo to be quickly loaded/unloaded. The tail flats and fin are mounted high. The aircraft has a two-wheel nose landing gear and two four-wheel main landing gears.

CARGO SYSTEM

The payload requirement of the Y-9 includes a range of military vehicles, helicopters, cargo containers, pallets, and paratroopers.

The 16.2m X 3.2m X 2.35m (length X width X height) cargo bay can transport up to 20t cargo. The Y-9 can air-drop paratroops and equipment either by parachute or gravity extraction. It can perform wither single or multiple airdrops of paratroopers and cargo. It can air-drop: single load up to 8.2t; or multiple loads up to 13.2t total; or 98 armed paratroopers; or 72 seriously wounded patients plus 3 medical staffs; or 98 lightly wounded patients; or thirteen 1-metre size pallets; or three 4-metre size pallets; or one 6-metre size pallets.

ENGINES

The aircraft is powered by four WJ-6C turboprop engines. The internal fuel load is 23t.

SPECIFICATIONS

Flight crew: 4
Cargo cabin size: (length/width/height) 16.2m/3.2m/2.35m
Maximum take-off weight: 65,000kg
Payload: 20,000 kg cargo; or 98 equipped troops; or vehicles and weapons
Cruising speed: 550km/h
Maximum speed: 650km/h
Service ceiling: 10,100m
Crusing altitude: 8,000m
Range: Ferry range with max payload 1,000km
Runway: Take-off 1,350m; landing 1,350m

Date Last Updated: 22 Sept 05

http://sinodefence.com/airforce/airlift/y9.asp

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September 24, 2005: Russia is about to commission into service a replacement for its Kilo class diesel-electric subs. The new class is the Lada (or Amur, for export versions). With all the new money the navy is getting, there are now plans to establish a unit of six (or more) Ladas in the Baltic in the next few years.

The Ladas are designed to be fast attack and scouting boats. They are intended for anti-surface and anti-submarine operations as well as naval reconnaissance. These boats are said to be eight times quieter than the Kilos. This was accomplished by using anechoic (sound absorbing) tile coatings on the exterior, and a very quiet (skewed) propeller. All interior machinery was designed with silence in mind. The sensors include active and passive sonars, including towed passive sonar. The Ladas have six 533mm torpedo tubes, with 18 torpedoes and/or missiles carried. The Lada has a surface displacement of 1,750 tons, are 220 feet long and carry a crew of 41. Each crewmember has their own cabin (very small for the junior crew, but still, a big morale boost). When submerged, the submarine can cruise at a top speed of about 39 kilometers an hour (half that on the surface) and can dive to about 800 feet. The Lada can can stay at sea for as long as 50 days, and the sub can travel as much as 10,000 kilometers using its diesel engine (underwater, via the snorkel) Submerged, using battery power, the Lada can travel about 450 kilometers. There is also an electronic periscope (which goes to the surface via a cable), that includes a night vision capability and a laser range finder. The Lada was designed to accept a AIP (air independent propulsion) system. Russia was long a pioneer in AIP design, but recently Western European nations have taken the lead. Construction on the first Lada began in 1997, but money shortages delayed work for years. The first Amur boat is under construction, and more Ladas will be laid down next year.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htada/articles/20050924.aspx

PLZ05 155MM SELF-PROPELLED GUN-HOWITZER

During the 2005 Beijing International Aviation Expo, NORINCO revealed a model of its latest PLZ05 155mm self-propelled gun-howitzer. It was speculated that NORINCO was developing an improved variant of its PLZ45 155mm self-propelled gun-howitzer, which was first introduced in the early 1990s. The development of the PLZ05 probably began in the late 1990s, and is probably close to complete by 2005.

From the model it can be seen that the new artillery system is based on the full-track chassis and 155mm/45-calibre main gun of the PLZ45, but with a new enlarged turret that bears a resemblance to that of the Russian MSTA-S 2S19 152mm self-propelled howitzer. The new artillery system is almost certainly fitted with a Chinese copy of the 2S19’s fully automatic loading system, which has been proven to much more efficient and reliable compared to the Chinese indigenous semi-automatic loading system on the PLZ45 and Type 83.

No detailed information on the artillery’s technical specifications is available.

Date Last Updated: 23 Sept 05

http://sinodefence.com/army/artillery/plz05sp_155mm.asp

India has been emerging as a major power over the last twenty years. The Indian economy is growing at a rate of roughly 6.8 percent a year, and its GDP is currently at $3.13 trillion. It also has a military that matches up well with any potential adversary. But how powerful is India when compared to other Asian powers? There is one major rival that has to be considered in Asia: China. With a GDP of $7.2 trillion (about twice that of India’s), China also has a population (1.3 billion) about 30 percent larger than India’s. These two countries are not on a collision course yet. The biggest cause of friction is China’s weapons exports to Pakistan, followed by a border dispute that last flared into war way back in 1962.

Both countries have made extensive acquisitions of Russian technology, like Kilo-class submarines and Su-30 fighters. Both sides also have made some extensive modernization efforts, replacing old technology with new equipment. Both nations are rapidly becoming regional powers to be reckoned with.

The Indian Army has 2.1 million men, counting reserves. It also has 2,800 main battle tanks (including 1,700 T-72s, 400 Vijayanta, 310 T-90S, 120 Arjun, and 200 T-55s), and 1,350 infantry fighting vehicles (1,300 of them BMP-2s). The Indian army also has a large amount of artillery (including 1,300 105mm Indian Field Guns, 750 130mm M-46 howitzers, 550 122mm D-30 howitzers, and 410 FH-77B 155mm howitzers).

The Chinese army has 2.3 million men, and over 7,000 tanks, 5,000 of which are the obsolete Type 59 (a copy of the T-55), and another 1,200 are the more modern Type 96.

The Indian Navy is probably one of the best in Asia. It has one carrier (Viraat), with as many as three others coming in the near future (in addition to the air-defense ship under construction, and the INS Vikramaditya, formerly the Admiral Gorshkov). India also has 11 destroyers, six of which (the three Delhi-class and the three Talwar-class) are modern, 11 frigates (six of which are the modern Godavari-class), and 16 submarines (14 of which are either the Type 209 or Kilo-class submarines). India has also recently agreed to lease two Akula-class nuclear submarines from Russia. The Chinese navy has a lot of quantity (74 submarines, 25 destroyers, 45 frigates), but many of these designs are old (16 of the destroyers, 30 of the frigates, and 52 of the submarines are state-of-the-art for 1960).

The Indian Air Force has around 670 aircraft. These aircraft have all been heavily upgraded. They have modern aircraft as well, including 50 Su-30MK (to eventually reach 190), 50 Mirage 2000, and 60 MiG-29. Even India’s MiG-21s have been upgraded to carry missiles like the AA-11/R-73 Archer, making them deadly adversaries. India’s pilots also train like Western pilots do. The Chinese air force has a lot of quantity (1,900 combat aircraft). However, many of these are older planes (350 J-6/MiG-19, 500 J-7/MiG-21, 300 Q-5, and 80 H-6/Tu-16 Badger). The only modern combat aircraft in the Chinese air force are the 180 J-11/Su-27 Flankers, 200 Su-30MKK Flankers, and 200 J-8 Finback fighters.

Both India and China are rising powers in Asia. That said, India has a pair of crucial leads – its Navy and Air Force have advantages in training and equipment that enable India to project power. China is nowhere close to India’s level of experience with carrier aviation, and PLAAF pilots are not as good as India’s. The Chinese have an edge in their army, but that would be easily overcome by India’s naval and air superiority, making India the major power in Asia by a small margin. – Harold C. Hutchison (hchutch@ix.netcom.com)

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/20050927.aspx

AFRICA: France tinkers with its African troop deployment
[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

DAKAR, 30 Sep 2005 (IRIN) - Adjusting to new realities on the ground, France plans to re-deploy its thousands of African-based troops in a scheme it says will bolster the continent's own home-grown peacekeeping forces.

The French Defence Ministry said this month it would reshuffle the deployment of some 7,000 soldiers to fit in with the way the African Union (AU) has divided up the continent into geographical zones.

"This is a very important shift which corresponds to changes made by the Africans themselves, since the AU intends to organise itself into sub-regions," defence spokesman Jean-Francois Bureau told a press conference in Paris.

However, some analysts say that while the shift may deflect charges of neo-colonialism, France still has a long way to go before relinquishing a military toehold in Africa.

"France would never have been a big power in 1960 if it hadn't been for its presence in Africa," said Jean-Pierre Dozon, research director at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris, referring to the year that saw colonies wrest their independence from France.

With French economic and military presence strong to this day across the continent, Paris, which has one of the five permanent seats on the Security Council, can traditionally count on a block of supporting votes at the United Nations.

But in recent years domestic distaste has risen over their presence in Africa, and military costs have grown as more French troops have been deployed to places like the Balkans.

In response, successive governments have cut back military contingents in Africa by a third in the last decade and soldiers are rotated more quickly than in the past.

Even today, more than 40 years after the independence struggles, losing influence in Africa means losing leverage on the world stage, according to Antoine Glaser, editor of the confidential Paris-based newsletter on Africa, La Lettre du Continent.

But France can no longer afford the presence it once enjoyed, he said.

Cote d'Ivoire stirs bad memories

With an annual price tag almost 200 million euros ($240 million), most of it shouldered by the French taxpayer, the former colonial power's operations in warring Cote d'Ivoire -- where some 4,000 troops work alongside UN peacekeepers -- have highlighted the financial burden of keeping a strong military presence in Africa.

"The proposed changes are meant to bring about substantial savings," Glaser said.

According to the authorities, the upcoming realignment is geared at boosting cooperation with the AU, which hopes to set up an African Standby Force (ASF) of up to 25,000 men able to carry out peacekeeping missions by 2010. The ASF would consist of five brigades, one for each sub-region, and would include police and civilian elements.

Recent events on the ground may also explain why France seems keen to disengage, analysts say.

The most serious incident occurred last November when French troops in Cote d'Ivoire were briefly dragged into the war there after coming under attack from government troops.

When nine of its peacekeepers were killed, France took out virtually the entire Ivorian air force but then had to rescue and help evacuate thousands of French nationals forced to flee ensuing anti-foreigner violence.

The troubles in Cote d'Ivoire stirred up painful memories of civilian evacuations from Algeria more than 40 years ago, EHESS research director Dozon told IRIN.

"The first instinct for the average French person was to ask 'What are we doing over there?'" he said. "People didn't want to relive that in 2004."

More generally, African populations, especially young people, have an increasingly negative view of any French military presence in their countries, according to Gilles Yabi, a West Africa analyst with the international think tank, Crisis Group.

"As long as there are permanent bases, the suspicion will be there that these troops serve to prop up administrations, which are friendly to the French but which are not necessarily democratic," Yabi told IRIN from his office in Dakar.

But with even the reshuffle, France is still the only former colonial power to have maintained permanent bases in Africa.

Analysts say this means France will remain uniquely qualified to supply rapid response support on a continent which, despite providing about 30 percent of UN forces worldwide, can still benefit from some peacekeeping know-how.

"AU forces still don't have all the necessary skills and resources to carry out difficult missions," Yabi said. "They need training and logistical support."

Ideal provider?

Outside intervention can provide key resources for non-UN peacekeeping missions, according to Mark Malan, head of research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, which was opened in Accra in 2004 to increase the sub-region's ability to handle conflicts.

He pointed to Burundi, Liberia and Cote-d'Ivoire as examples of hotspots where a foreign power -- South Africa, the United States and France respectively -- played an essential role before the UN became involved.

"But who the ideal provider is? That's debatable," he told IRIN.

Dozon of the EHESS said the way forward was for the European Union to take over from France. He welcomed talk from the French of "Europeanising" bases by encouraging a greater presence of EU military personnel and non-governmental organisations.

By pooling resources with the EU, France would be able to save money and defend itself better against charges of neo-colonialism, he said.

Under the French plan, to be unveiled at December's Franco-African summit in Bamako, troops currently based in five French-speaking countries -- Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, Gabon, Chad and Djibouti -- would be regrouped into three African bases that conform with three AU sub-regions, Senegal for West Africa, Gabon for Central Africa and Djibouti for Eastern Africa.

Soldiers stationed on the French island of Reunion, which lies in the Indian Ocean, would be lined up to work with the Southern Africa sub-region.

Thus troops currently based in Chad would operate out of Gabon and those serving alongside UN peacekeepers in Cote d'Ivoire would be withdrawn to Senegal once peace has returned.

French officials said the number of troops on the ground and existing defence agreements with individual countries would not be affected.

But Glaser, the editor of the Africa newsletter, said France was not relinquishing an inch of power.

"It's a change in political rhetoric but, for the time being, it doesn't change a thing on the ground," he said. "French President Jacques Chirac will continue to decide all alone on whether or not France intervenes in a given country."

[ENDS]

This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but May not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2005

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/200...il-050930-irin03.htm

Brazil Receives First F-5BR

Flight International
27-Sep-2005

Brazil has received its first upgraded F-5BR from Embaer and Israel’s Elbit Systems under a deal to modernise 45 of its ageing Northrop fighters. Changes include integration of a new mission computer and avionics suite.