In the end, it is a decision that only the Iraqis can make. Whether to genuinely go forward with the notion of a unified but federalized nation; or to create a tripartite alliance between the three main groups, but allowing for independent autonomy...it is for them to decide. Of course, the worse case scenario for them, if they don't come together on this, is implosion & civil war....
The risk of return to civil war has always been present, which is why I posted many times that all declarations of "victory" in Iraq (something no one has ever or willing to define) were premature at best. If victory were to mean at its most basic level that Iraq was a stable, intact, and (relatively) safe country 5 years after the US pulled its forces out then all claims to that effect would have to wait for some period of time.
Saddam, for all his faults, had a country that was secular, secure (at least internally), and intact. Plus he served the purpose of providing a balance of power in the middle east by scaring the daylights out of the Iranians even after being defanged by the UN (who according to the 2002 NIE, did an admirable job of locating and removing WMD from Iraq's arsenal), while simultnaeously being prevented from rebuilding his army under a long and thorough arms embargo.
However, it is now largely up to the Iraqi's to take a stand for their preservation as a country and society.
Policywonk...You say that Iraq was internally secure under Saddam Hussein; but I would say, most definitely, not. It may have been for the minority Sunnis, who murderously usurped power; but it was most certainly not for the two clearly larger groups, the Shiites & the Kurds. They were constantly under fierce murderous suppression by Saddam & his minions (as they still are by Sunnis & Al Qaeda terrorists). This is not to say that "there is peace in the valley" in Iraq today; but at least the weight has been lifted from these two groups. Yes, they still have a long way to go, but the ball is most definitely in their & all Iraqi hands. Either they can learn from their terrible past & really work to create a new & true nation for all Iraqis of a civil bent, or fall back into chaos & eventual civil war. Also; the historical lessons in successfully building a democratic nation, of one sort or another, are written for them to learn from. At any rate, our mission has been accomplished; & the choices to make are clearly in their own hands...All of this being said, we can only wish them the best of luck....
