quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by nspreitler:

I wouldn't underestimate what they can do conventionally. A preemptive attack on them wouls prompt them to hit S Korea and US bases with artillery, and they have 30 brigades of artillery.

A fight with N Korea would not be easy. They have a robust air defense net, and if backed into a corner have stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons that can be delivered via artillery.

They have a million man standing Army, and while their equipment, like the T-55 and T-62 (which are heavily modified) BMP-1, and BTR-60s, is outdated they do have a lot of leg infantry.

True about their artillery, but then again, Saddam had a bigger army than NK at the beginning of Desert Storm. They also had a modern air defense and the best artillery piece in the world due to their purchases of South African artillery pieces which could outdistance our artillery. He also had more infantry available than the US. What was the result of that conflict? 200k plus Iraqi casualties versus 300 kia for the US.

Different ground, mountainous terrain, favoring an infantry war, as opposed to a mechanized and air war...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:
More than likely, it is Kim trying to show his generals that he is tough. Kim knows that any threat he makes to the outside world is pretty much an empty threat. With only a handful of su-37s and their best tank being a t62, there really isn't much he can do conventionally. In fact, one of the reasons the US still has forces in Korea is also prevent South Korea from launching an attack on the North. The South now has a modern military with first rate equipment. As such, there really isn't much of a need for US forces in Korea anymore as the South can defend itself other than to prevent another war between the two Koreas that can end up sucking in the rest of the world. This time, I think Kim bit off two much for his own good. Not even the Chinese or Russians are willing to back him up this time around.

Think that your assessment of the south is totally wrong...
They are a capitalist manufacturing economy and have reaped much more with trade than they ever could with bullets and they know that...
To invade the north would be stupidity personified and what would they gain?...
Total societal unrest in the south and a collapse of the economy, nope, just can't see it!...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

Their gain would be the reunification of their country. It would be no different than if the South had won the Civil War. Even if the North was more prosperous, it would still want to refight the war to re-capture the South. As with the ROKs, they are a tough military force. Their equipment is first rate and so are their personnel. In fact, they are even manufacturing their own small arms and tanks. The South is more than capable of taking on the North Koreans.

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by john2x:
To effectively knock out the US IT infrastructure, you would need a burst in the megaton range.


Im not so sure about that and all this EMP talk.
Im confused since I experienced a 6 MT air burst
over 54 years ago and there were no effects on the electronics or infrastructure. The Islands systems were unaffected desalinazation plant,communications, electronics, radar tracking, ect. The 7th fleets task force that ringed the Island with all the AEC test equiptment was unaffected also, So in reality I dont understand what changed? EMPs today are the same as they were then I would assume. So WTF are they talking about??

Basically stating that Kim does not have a nuke capable of knocking out the US IT infrastructure. The actual amount is higher than what I stated. I'm just trying to keep the conversation to an unclassified open discussion. As for electronics, the electronics now are even more sensitive to emp and tempest than they were 54 years ago. Remember, you had vacuum tubes back then, versus the printed circuits we have now. As such, the electronics back then weren't as sensitive to emp as they are now.

You, of course do know, that the U.S. has the capability of shutting down all of the DPRKs "tron" gear, fooling it and then shutting down their power generation, without using "nukes", don't you?...
And that is based on the level of sophistication, when I was on active duty...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:


You do know your post is silly? Obama made a major effort to manuver Kim into this present untenable position. And in a recent speech, he point blank said that unlike past Presidents, he's NOT going to let Kim bluff his way into getting more welfare.

So you think he first deliberately created a situation where Kim is right behind the eight ball, only to back down? You have a hell of lot more bias then most people if you can't even see this.

Dave

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:
And as clever a guy as Obama is, you just may be giving him too much credit, ever think of that one?...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

No doubt about the south's capability but, they will not invade or attack the north, not without sufficient provocation by the north...
Case in point, the south has fought "naval skirmishes" with the north before over disputed territory and coastal waters, no war!...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by nspreitler:

I wouldn't underestimate what they can do conventionally. A preemptive attack on them wouls prompt them to hit S Korea and US bases with artillery, and they have 30 brigades of artillery.

A fight with N Korea would not be easy. They have a robust air defense net, and if backed into a corner have stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons that can be delivered via artillery.

They have a million man standing Army, and while their equipment, like the T-55 and T-62 (which are heavily modified) BMP-1, and BTR-60s, is outdated they do have a lot of leg infantry.

True about their artillery, but then again, Saddam had a bigger army than NK at the beginning of Desert Storm. They also had a modern air defense and the best artillery piece in the world due to their purchases of South African artillery pieces which could outdistance our artillery. He also had more infantry available than the US. What was the result of that conflict? 200k plus Iraqi casualties versus 300 kia for the US.

Different ground, mountainous terrain, favoring an infantry war, as opposed to a mechanized and air war...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

Then look at Kosolvo and Bosnia, two wars fought entirely by the Air Force. A couple planes shot down versus 50k kia on the serb side. That was in mountainous terrain. Plus, Pyonyang and most of the populated areas of North Korea are in terrain consisting of plains. It is only at the border that it is really mountainous. Once you crack that, it would be pretty easy sailing against an army with antiquated equipment. Finally, the North Koreans are not as well fed and fit as the South Koreans are, even with Kim diverting most of the food to the Army.

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

No doubt about the south's capability but, they will not invade or attack the north, not without sufficient provocation by the north...
Case in point, the south has fought "naval skirmishes" with the north before over disputed territory and coastal waters, no war!...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

Never say never. Eisenhower had to stop the Koreans from attacking the North during his presidency. During the 70s, when there was a military junta in charge of ROK, the junta made several overtures to the US asking for support in attacking the North. Yes, there are protests in Korea, but they are no more representative of the majority as do the protesters in the US. The vast silent majority appreciate the US and realize what a serious threat the North is to the ROK.

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by john2x:
To effectively knock out the US IT infrastructure, you would need a burst in the megaton range.


Im not so sure about that and all this EMP talk.
Im confused since I experienced a 6 MT air burst
over 54 years ago and there were no effects on the electronics or infrastructure. The Islands systems were unaffected desalinazation plant,communications, electronics, radar tracking, ect. The 7th fleets task force that ringed the Island with all the AEC test equiptment was unaffected also, So in reality I dont understand what changed? EMPs today are the same as they were then I would assume. So WTF are they talking about??

Basically stating that Kim does not have a nuke capable of knocking out the US IT infrastructure. The actual amount is higher than what I stated. I'm just trying to keep the conversation to an unclassified open discussion. As for electronics, the electronics now are even more sensitive to emp and tempest than they were 54 years ago. Remember, you had vacuum tubes back then, versus the printed circuits we have now. As such, the electronics back then weren't as sensitive to emp as they are now.

You, of course do know, that the U.S. has the capability of shutting down all of the DPRKs "tron" gear, fooling it and then shutting down their power generation, without using "nukes", don't you?...
And that is based on the level of sophistication, when I was on active duty...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

probably true, but we were talking about Kim's ability to knock out our electronic infrastructure. I agree with your earlier post concerning vacuum tubes. Our electronics are more vulnerable these days to emp, but Kim doesn't have the missile or the nuke warhead capable of doing a large scale emp burst.

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by L0A1:
I haven't a clue what people expect from Obama. Is he suppose to start a war over this?
Those that are slamming him for not reacting to Kim, think about it, what CAN he do? Those giving the President props, why, he isn't doing anything. Come on folks, stop looking with your partisan blinders on and understand that there is NOTHING he can do to NK.

Sheez, between the bashers and cheerleaders, is it no wonder this country is falling apart?

I believe he's prepared to "risk" a war, in which most of the actual burden will be on the South, with us providing air support, and if necessary, nuclear support. Kim costs us enourmus amounts of money simply by exporting his technology to whomever is ready to fork over the cash.

He's succeded, where Bush and Clinton failed, in isolating the North from it's usual protectors.

I "think" he expects the North to fold, which in this case might be fatal to the regime. Dictatorships like Kims cannot take "The Great Leader" backing down. I believe Obama expects a collapse, but is ready for a worst case scenario.

I certainly don't want him to start a war, but I do expect him to do what he can to get rid of Kim. I didn't complain about Bush trying to get rid of Kim, I complained about the WAY he went about it. For years, using Boltan (who is almost as nuts as Kim) to be in charge of "negotiations." Now that didn't work to well.

Dave

I think that the pot bellied little pig is a pragmatist...
If he "backs down", he looses his dynasty, even unto his kiddies taking over...
So, what's a nut bar dictator to do?...
Simple, either blow up his Taepodong II on the launch pad or just after launch and say that it was a "technical glitch" and not build another one, shoot a few scientists for their "see out" to the decatent influences of the west, hold a big parade, scream death to the U.S. and all will be well, at least for the next few months, as his people starve and his army "dies on the vine"...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

NOT PROBABLY TRUE BUT, TRUE!...
At least when it came to our ability to shut down electronics sources and electrical generation sources, when I was on active duty...
Not trying to sound like "secret squirrel" but, yes, WE DID THEN have that technology...
First, as to Kim Jung Mentally Ill's capability, he'd have to get it here or at least in a proximity at a sufficient enough altitude with sufficient enough yield to do it...
He does not yet have the capability...
I would be more concerned with one of his submarines on a "one way suicide run", detonating a "nuke" in Hawaiian waters or in one of the major ports on the west coast, say San Pedro, Long Beach or L.A. harbors, as they are all just about one in the same...
If he put one of his diesel boats into San Diego or Port Hueneme, at the naval stations there or into a Japanese or Taiwanese naval base, that would be a propaganda victory for him and the radical islamic world, at least on the U.S. ports...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:


You do know your post is silly? Obama made a major effort to manuver Kim into this present untenable position. And in a recent speech, he point blank said that unlike past Presidents, he's NOT going to let Kim bluff his way into getting more welfare.

So you think he first deliberately created a situation where Kim is right behind the eight ball, only to back down? You have a hell of lot more bias then most people if you can't even see this.

Dave

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:
And as clever a guy as Obama is, you just may be giving him too much credit, ever think of that one?...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

There are far to many "coincidences" for this not to be a part of a plan. Without using harsh or threatening rhetoric, he manuvered China and Russia in dropping their protective status.

He's gone over board in saying we will not be the ones to fire the first shot.

He's declared, no more welfare for the North.

He got the head of the ROK to endorse his statements, and they issued a joint statement.

All of this within five months? I'm not a big fan of multiple coincidences. These above results are more than just lucky accidents. Certainly I'm pleased by events. I think we should ALL be pleased by events.

Dave

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

NOT PROBABLY TRUE BUT, TRUE!...
At least when it came to our ability to shut down electronics sources and electrical generation sources, when I was on active duty...
Not trying to sound like "secret squirrel" but, yes, WE DID THEN have that technology...
First, as to Kim Jung Mentally Ill's capability, he'd have to get it here or at least in a proximity at a sufficient enough altitude with sufficient enough yield to do it...
He does not yet have the capability...
I would be more concerned with one of his submarines on a "one way suicide run", detonating a "nuke" in Hawaiian waters or in one of the major ports on the west coast, say San Pedro, Long Beach or L.A. harbors, as they are all just about one in the same...
If he put one of his diesel boats into San Diego or Port Hueneme, at the naval stations there or into a Japanese or Taiwanese naval base, that would be a propaganda victory for him and the radical islamic world, at least on the U.S. ports...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

And that is a scarier scenario. However, I have to believe that the Cold War apparatus designed to detect Soviet subs would do an adequate job in detecting a North Korean diesel sub. Even though diesel subs are quieter than nukes, they would still have to surface on a trip from NK to Oahu.

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

NOT PROBABLY TRUE BUT, TRUE!...
At least when it came to our ability to shut down electronics sources and electrical generation sources, when I was on active duty...
Not trying to sound like "secret squirrel" but, yes, WE DID THEN have that technology...
First, as to Kim Jung Mentally Ill's capability, he'd have to get it here or at least in a proximity at a sufficient enough altitude with sufficient enough yield to do it...
He does not yet have the capability...
I would be more concerned with one of his submarines on a "one way suicide run", detonating a "nuke" in Hawaiian waters or in one of the major ports on the west coast, say San Pedro, Long Beach or L.A. harbors, as they are all just about one in the same...
If he put one of his diesel boats into San Diego or Port Hueneme, at the naval stations there or into a Japanese or Taiwanese naval base, that would be a propaganda victory for him and the radical islamic world, at least on the U.S. ports...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

And that is a scarier scenario. However, I have to believe that the Cold War apparatus designed to detect Soviet subs would do an adequate job in detecting a North Korean diesel sub. Even though diesel subs are quieter than nukes, they would still have to surface on a trip from NK to Oahu.

quote:

Originally posted by combatcowgirlhl:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

NOT PROBABLY TRUE BUT, TRUE!...
At least when it came to our ability to shut down electronics sources and electrical generation sources, when I was on active duty...
Not trying to sound like "secret squirrel" but, yes, WE DID THEN have that technology...
First, as to Kim Jung Mentally Ill's capability, he'd have to get it here or at least in a proximity at a sufficient enough altitude with sufficient enough yield to do it...
He does not yet have the capability...
I would be more concerned with one of his submarines on a "one way suicide run", detonating a "nuke" in Hawaiian waters or in one of the major ports on the west coast, say San Pedro, Long Beach or L.A. harbors, as they are all just about one in the same...
If he put one of his diesel boats into San Diego or Port Hueneme, at the naval stations there or into a Japanese or Taiwanese naval base, that would be a propaganda victory for him and the radical islamic world, at least on the U.S. ports...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

And that is a scarier scenario. However, I have to believe that the Cold War apparatus designed to detect Soviet subs would do an adequate job in detecting a North Korean diesel sub. Even though diesel subs are quieter than nukes, they would still have to surface on a trip from NK to Oahu.

You could use the 7th fleet, sonar buoys, 47's, and, double up on the sub search(?).

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:


You do know your post is silly? Obama made a major effort to manuver Kim into this present untenable position. And in a recent speech, he point blank said that unlike past Presidents, he's NOT going to let Kim bluff his way into getting more welfare.

So you think he first deliberately created a situation where Kim is right behind the eight ball, only to back down? You have a hell of lot more bias then most people if you can't even see this.

Dave

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:
And as clever a guy as Obama is, you just may be giving him too much credit, ever think of that one?...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

There are far to many "coincidences" for this not to be a part of a plan. Without using harsh or threatening rhetoric, he manuvered China and Russia in dropping their protective status.

He's gone over board in saying we will not be the ones to fire the first shot.

He's declared, no more welfare for the North.

He got the head of the ROK to endorse his statements, and they issued a joint statement.

All of this within five months? I'm not a big fan of multiple coincidences. These above results are more than just lucky accidents. Certainly I'm pleased by events. I think we should ALL be pleased by events.

Dave

No offense Dave but, there are those that say the FDR let "Pearl Harbor happen"!...
I mean, the whole fleet but the carriers in the port for the weekend, the major portion of the fleets refueling capability removed, so they could not engage in "long range" operations, the double bottoms of the battleships opened for "inspection" on Monday morning?...
Then of course, there was the Opana Point radar station that tracked the attacking forces all the way in to the dead zone from the mountains around their site and the were told by the Fort Shafter information center, "Don't worry about it!", lot's of coincidences but, that is all that they were, yet all these many years, you still have people...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by AirForceAggie:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

NOT PROBABLY TRUE BUT, TRUE!...
At least when it came to our ability to shut down electronics sources and electrical generation sources, when I was on active duty...
Not trying to sound like "secret squirrel" but, yes, WE DID THEN have that technology...
First, as to Kim Jung Mentally Ill's capability, he'd have to get it here or at least in a proximity at a sufficient enough altitude with sufficient enough yield to do it...
He does not yet have the capability...
I would be more concerned with one of his submarines on a "one way suicide run", detonating a "nuke" in Hawaiian waters or in one of the major ports on the west coast, say San Pedro, Long Beach or L.A. harbors, as they are all just about one in the same...
If he put one of his diesel boats into San Diego or Port Hueneme, at the naval stations there or into a Japanese or Taiwanese naval base, that would be a propaganda victory for him and the radical islamic world, at least on the U.S. ports...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

And that is a scarier scenario. However, I have to believe that the Cold War apparatus designed to detect Soviet subs would do an adequate job in detecting a North Korean diesel sub. Even though diesel subs are quieter than nukes, they would still have to surface on a trip from NK to Oahu.

SNORKEL!...
Then of course, there is AIP...
The "cold war" systems were compromised by ole "Johny Walker", remember that crud and one or two more...
The systems, since compromised, were withdrawn from service...
Were they replaced?...
I sure as h3ll hope so but...
Remember, the U.S. Navy has been suffering from a dirth of ASW assets recently, with the withdrawal of the S-3 and with the phase in of the new ASW assets to replace the P-3 Orion...
Don't get me wrong, not slamming the P-3 at all, great bird and great capability...
It's just that the U.S. Navy's assets were geared against boats from the former Soviet Union and not against more modern diesel and AIP submarines...
If you remember, we "leased" one from a European government to run test against our ASW assets and we received a very unpleasant surprise...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by combatcowgirlhl:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by L0A1:
I haven't a clue what people expect from Obama. Is he suppose to start a war over this?
Those that are slamming him for not reacting to Kim, think about it, what CAN he do? Those giving the President props, why, he isn't doing anything. Come on folks, stop looking with your partisan blinders on and understand that there is NOTHING he can do to NK.

Sheez, between the bashers and cheerleaders, is it no wonder this country is falling apart?

I believe he's prepared to "risk" a war, in which most of the actual burden will be on the South, with us providing air support, and if necessary, nuclear support. Kim costs us enourmus amounts of money simply by exporting his technology to whomever is ready to fork over the cash.

He's succeded, where Bush and Clinton failed, in isolating the North from it's usual protectors.

I "think" he expects the North to fold, which in this case might be fatal to the regime. Dictatorships like Kims cannot take "The Great Leader" backing down. I believe Obama expects a collapse, but is ready for a worst case scenario.

I certainly don't want him to start a war, but I do expect him to do what he can to get rid of Kim. I didn't complain about Bush trying to get rid of Kim, I complained about the WAY he went about it. For years, using Boltan (who is almost as nuts as Kim) to be in charge of "negotiations." Now that didn't work to well.

Dave

I think that the pot bellied little pig is a pragmatist...
If he "backs down", he looses his dynasty, even unto his kiddies taking over...
So, what's a nut bar dictator to do?...
Simple, either blow up his Taepodong II on the launch pad or just after launch and say that it was a "technical glitch" and not build another one, shoot a few scientists for their "see out" to the decatent influences of the west, hold a big parade, scream death to the U.S. and all will be well, at least for the next few months, as his people starve and his army "dies on the vine"...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

So, what's a nut bar dictator to do?...
What id he feels he has nothing to lose? What's to stop him from carrying out his threats?
Why shouldn't we board suspected NK ships?
Does anyone remember the U.S.S Pueblo? I believe we should take this nut case seriously! Nip the prob at the bud it is now and, lower the threat.

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by combatcowgirlhl:

quote:

Originally posted by SUNLINER81:

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by L0A1:
I haven't a clue what people expect from Obama. Is he suppose to start a war over this?
Those that are slamming him for not reacting to Kim, think about it, what CAN he do? Those giving the President props, why, he isn't doing anything. Come on folks, stop looking with your partisan blinders on and understand that there is NOTHING he can do to NK.

Sheez, between the bashers and cheerleaders, is it no wonder this country is falling apart?

I believe he's prepared to "risk" a war, in which most of the actual burden will be on the South, with us providing air support, and if necessary, nuclear support. Kim costs us enourmus amounts of money simply by exporting his technology to whomever is ready to fork over the cash.

He's succeded, where Bush and Clinton failed, in isolating the North from it's usual protectors.

I "think" he expects the North to fold, which in this case might be fatal to the regime. Dictatorships like Kims cannot take "The Great Leader" backing down. I believe Obama expects a collapse, but is ready for a worst case scenario.

I certainly don't want him to start a war, but I do expect him to do what he can to get rid of Kim. I didn't complain about Bush trying to get rid of Kim, I complained about the WAY he went about it. For years, using Boltan (who is almost as nuts as Kim) to be in charge of "negotiations." Now that didn't work to well.

Dave

I think that the pot bellied little pig is a pragmatist...
If he "backs down", he looses his dynasty, even unto his kiddies taking over...
So, what's a nut bar dictator to do?...
Simple, either blow up his Taepodong II on the launch pad or just after launch and say that it was a "technical glitch" and not build another one, shoot a few scientists for their "see out" to the decatent influences of the west, hold a big parade, scream death to the U.S. and all will be well, at least for the next few months, as his people starve and his army "dies on the vine"...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

So, what's a nut bar dictator to do?...
What id he feels he has nothing to lose? What's to stop him from carrying out his threats?
Why shouldn't we board suspected NK ships?
Does anyone remember the U.S.S Pueblo? I believe we should take this nut case seriously! Nip the prob at the bud it is now and, lower the threat.

I have no problem with boarding a vessel from the DPRK, not at all...
We just need to "pack the sack", to back it up, therein, is the problem!...
Do we have the assets committed to a naval war and ground war in and around the Korean peninsula?...
That is the question...
If the pot bellied little pig attacks in full force with everything that he has, he could conceivably over run both U.S. and South Korean forces, much like he did in 1950 and push us into another "Pusan perimeter" type of situation and that may lead to the use of "tactical" nuclear weapons, to save our collective butts...
That is my worry, when it comes to a "conventional" war with the "north"...
IMHO...
Respectfully, SUNLINER81

quote:

Originally posted by L0A1:


Exactly what I was saying.

We would have to use tactical nukes or be overwhelmed.

quote:

Originally posted by Grachus:

quote:

Originally posted by L0A1:


Exactly what I was saying.

We would have to use tactical nukes or be overwhelmed.

Since the military of the ROK is larger then his, since their equipment is better, we are only needed to counter his use of nuclear weapons.

What other assests do we need? A 1,000 gallon tank of Glen livet?

Dave