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Military.com Forums Hot Topics & Current Events In the News The Recession is Over .....until next week|
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Experienced Member |
Chicago Tribune 10-29-09
With Gross Domestic Product shooting up at a higher-than-expected 3.5 percent annual rate, the recession is officially over. But just wait til next week. The first Friday in November brings an employment report that could show the nation's jobless rate pushing past 10 percent for the first time since the early 1980s. Recovery will be a long, slow affair, predicts Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody's Economy.com. The only reason for Thursday's positive GDP report is government spending and the Federal Reserve's aggressive action. "If we didn't have the government aid, the economy would be at best flat," he said in an interview. The labor market will be trailing behind, he said. Employers need to be convinced the turnaround is real. And their first move will be expanding hours for their existing workers rather than hiring new ones ."There are huge amounts of underemployed," he pointed out. Faucher expects unemployment to clock in at 9.9 percent next Friday, but then keep rising through the late spring of 2010. Even at the end of next year, the jobless rate will be around 10 percent, he predicted -- mostly because consumers cutting back their spending habits won't be driving a big rebound. Don't listen to the naysayers.....big day on Wall St.....more good times ahead....stay tuned for more..... |
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Experienced Member |
What do you mean "wait till next week"! LOL!
I get paid on Monday and am already in the "recessed" mode for that check and the next, and the next.......! Frustrated Frisco |
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Highly Experienced Member |
Because current gvt. fails to understand how an econony works, what money actually is , what causes an economy to expand, etc.. They are still hung up on Keynesian economics supercharged. Unless the wealth gvt spends is REAL HARD wealth, the created money serves only to make EVERYONE a little poorer. Unless the spending is REPAID in real hard money (it never has been) it devalues the currency still more.
Mr. Obama's economice do nothing except devalue our wealth. Remember a few months age Mr. Obana estimated the budget this year would be $1.3 TRILLION short in tax renevues. Repeating the action over and over expecting a different result, I've heard tell, is insane. |
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Highly Experienced Member |
The audacity of dope!  |
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Experienced Member |
Takes sustainable growth at least two quarters of good percentages. While 3.5% sounds good 1.6% was from the clunker program presenting a phony increase. Growth can only be meassured in free enterprise private sector, not funny money from government. Next year going against government stimulus will drag the economy down to break even. The Recession is not over for the millions on unemployment. Your next bow should be accompanied with some vaseline.
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Experienced Member |
You're half right. Printing money does not equal growth. Inflated stock and real estate prices don't equal growth either. "Wealth" is only created when you apply elbow grease and build something. Who benefits the most from that "wealth" is usually dictated by who is able to exploit it to their advantage the quickest. The building of the pyramids in Egypt are a good example of this. The "financial services" industry is another good example. Doh!  |
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Member |
Over a trillion dollars spent on stimulus and the economy is as good as it gets?
The train has already wrecked yet Pres Obama/Pelosi/Reid are still shoveling coal into the burner. |
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Experienced Member |
Therin lies the farce that we are out of recession. Problem is that this 3.5% growth is as phony as it gets. Unfortunately, government spending counts towards GDP. consumer spending hasnt returned, domestic production hasnt returned and car sales are now worse than they were before cash for clunkers. This administration's policies and the printing presses working at 300% has created a dollar thats at an all time low, gold prices through the roof, oil back on its way to 100/bbl for no reason other than the dollar is worthless. People think we are on the road to socialism and I say no, we are on the express train to communism. This administration will continue to take over the country little by little until its too late to stop it. |
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Another big round of defaults and foreclosures will hit this next month as property taxes come due - Happy Thanksgivings and Merry Christmas!
 Wandering and Wondering |
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Experienced Member |
Commercial real estate crash on the way. Buckle up!  |
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Air Force Retired |
Be glad you get a paycheck there are many unemployed that do not. Thank goodness for that retirement check each month  |
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Experienced Member |
Got that right! On both counts! Frustrated Frisco |
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Highly respected member |
....this is suppose to make everything else so far look like a walk in the park... Already past the future |
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Highly Experienced Member |
3, three, ha ha ha, three retirement checks   |
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Experienced Member |
I would die of boredom if I was not working. 1 retirement check, 2 pay checks! 2, one from my day job, and one from my own business. Frustrated Frisco |
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Experienced Member |
Although I only get 1 retirement check, have a day job and have my own business, thank god I set myself up and only have 3 creditors to my name, the major being my house payment the other 2 are trivial.  I would be sitting even higher had the government not gotten involved and allowed people to loose fake retirement money they never really had to begin with but said they lost because they didn't get a positive return with money they chose to gamble with instead of paying off debt like I did. |
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Experienced Member |
And global warming has ended as hell froze over. we agree on something! I remember being bashed by the Bushies every time I said anything about fake money and phony investments when I first started posting, first as a number and then under my current handle. Its sad that it took a financial crisis for Americans to wake up and realize they had no savings and had been spending money they didnt have for the past 2 decades. Admittedly, I have almost 3 million in debt but it is almost all in real estate with good equity positions despite the free fall of values, especially in Eastern Europe. I could still sell it all and retire very comfortably but then like some of you expressed, I would be SO damn bored. |
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Highly Experienced Member |
I retired 11 years ago and through that time I have often wondered how I ever found the time to hold down a job. Retirement bordem is nothing more than being lazy imo! |
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Experienced Member |
Interesting how there is a cascade effect, first subprime, then interest only and option ARMs, then prime, now commercial real estate. This is the big show, its where the big bucks are invested..... Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.” “All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate -- the return that investors are demanding to buy a property -- are going up.” U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19. Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate. “The American consumer will no longer be able to serve as the motor for the world economy,” said Soros, 79. His comments came in the same week that Capmark Financial Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after originating $60 billion in commercial property loans in 2006 and 2007. ‘Extreme Caution’ Ross, the 71-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of WL Ross & Co. LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio that he would use “extreme caution” before putting money into commercial real estate, especially office space, because properties are losing tenants. U.S. office vacancies hit a five-year high of almost 17 percent in the third quarter, while shopping center vacancies climbed to their highest since 1992, according to the property research firm Reis Inc. “I think it’s going to take quite a while to work itself out,” Ross said. As of Oct. 15, Ross said he had spent less than $100 million of at least $1.5 billion available to him under the Public-Private Investment Program, an investment pool of private and government money for purchasing distressed assets from financial institutions. Ross used the funds he spent so far to purchase residential mortgage-backed securities, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Corus Investment WL Ross was among a group of firms that agreed Oct. 6 to buy $4.5 billion of Corus Bankshares Inc.’s real estate. Starwood Capital Group LLC and TPG led the group to buy the assets of the Chicago-based lender, which was seized by federal regulators Sept. 11 after its investments in construction loans for condominiums went bad. In 2007, Ross ventured into the declining residential property market, winning an auction for the home-loan servicing unit of Melville, New York-based American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. He agreed to pay between $435 million and $500 million for the right to collect payments and maintain escrow on about $45.3 billion of home mortgages. Making Lists Dubbed the King of Bankruptcy by clients during his quarter century at the Rothschild investment bank, Ross entered the U.S. home mortgage business as an increasing number of borrowers quit making payments and profits sank in loan servicing. “Our methodology is to make a great big list: What’s every thing we can think of that’s either wrong with the industry or that we just plain don’t like about it,” Ross said today. “Then we start work on another list. If we had control of this industry, what would we do to fix each one of those problems?” he said. “Once we feel that there is a reasonable likelihood that the second chart kind of equals the first chart, that’s when we get ready to do something.” |
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Experienced Member |
This will be when Obama lets all these businesses fail because they are just that...businesses and if it aint state owned then it soon will be at rock bottom prices after bankruptcy.
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Military.com Forums Hot Topics & Current Events In the News The Recession is Over .....until next week
