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Something Wicked This Way Comes
Picture of militia1
Posted
quote:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.



Been a while since the Atlantic has been this active. Several areas to keep an eye on.

T
 
Posts: 4646 | Registered: Sun 08 July 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
Picture of militia1
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Updated:

quote:
THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC BASIN THAT COULD BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF MARTINIQUE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME....THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS LARGE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
 
Posts: 4646 | Registered: Sun 08 July 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
Picture of militia1
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Winter Outlook 2007-2008





Figured I would post these from Accuweather. Not much on faith with forecasting long term conditions, but for what its worth, here it is.

T
 
Posts: 4646 | Registered: Sun 08 July 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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You mean that I'm getting 1 storm in Mobile, AL with at least 2" of snow/ice???
 
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Looks loke a normal winter forcast for Northern Michigan,White Gold$$$$$$$.
 
Posts: 951 | Registered: Mon 19 February 2007Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
Picture of militia1
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quote:
You mean that I'm getting 1 storm in Mobile, AL with at least 2" of snow/ice???


Seth

Next Winter, you will be praying for only 2" of snow. Not sure you remember the last time it snowed in Mobile, but it was 1996. And you would have thought all hell was freezing over with 2".

Here is the map:



quote:
Looks loke a normal winter forcast for Northern Michigan,White Gold$$$$$$$.


Sounds like someone does some plowing on the side.

Seth, you might want to get gulls number where your going.

T
 
Posts: 4646 | Registered: Sun 08 July 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
Picture of militia1
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Latest NHC Discussion. Lots of potentials out there:

quote:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


T
 
Posts: 4646 | Registered: Sun 08 July 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Highly Experienced Member
Picture of Wray
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Hey Tony, How many hurricanes did they predict for this year? I'd say they were a little off... As I recall the numbers were kinda high...

I think I, or anyone else can do just as well...

Wray... Cool
 
Posts: 13086 | Registered: Fri 22 September 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Something Wicked This Way Comes
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Wray

Depends on which outlook you wanted to count. NOAA predicted 17 storms, Dr Grey and his team predicted 19.

I am really not a fan of these long range outlooks. As you have said before, you cant predict the weather accurately next week, how do you do it for the next 6 months. I dont think what alot of people realize is that the 2005 Hurricane season is widely regarded as a once in a lifetime event. There has no doubt been an increase in storms since 95, and that will continue, but you try and tell everyone exactly what mother nature will do, and you will only make yourself look foolish.

The longest model forecast out to 15 days, and that is pretty much the longest I will trust. Anything longer than that, and you are better off going with the Farmers Almanac, or counting bands on wooly caterpillars.

If I trust the wooly caterpillar, we have a rough winter ahead.

T
 
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Sorry, couldn't help myself.


 
Posts: 360 | Registered: Fri 22 September 2006Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by duckcop:
Sorry, couldn't help myself.




I say it works!
 
Posts: 78 | Registered: Tue 16 October 2007Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Picture of spudsdown
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quote:
Originally posted by militia1:
. . .I am really not a fan of these long range outlooks. As you have said before, you cant predict the weather accurately next week, how do you do it for the next 6 months. . .If I trust the wooly caterpillar, we have a rough winter ahead.


INDIAN WINTER

IT WAS ALREADY LATE FALL AND THE INDIANS ON A REMOTE RESERVATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASKED THEIR NEW CHIEF IF THE COMING WINTER WAS GOING TO BE COLD OR MILD.

SINCE HE WAS A CHIEF IN A MODERN SOCIETY HE HAD NEVER BEEN TAUGHT THE OLD SECRETS. WHEN HE LOOKED AT THE SKY HE COULDN'T TELL WHAT THE WINTER WAS GOING TO BE LIKE.

NEVERTHELESS, TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE, HE TOLD HIS TRIBE THAT THE WINTER WAS INDEED GOING TO BE COLD AND THAT THE MEMBERS OF THE VILLAGE SHOULD COLLECT FIREWOOD TO BE PREPARED.

BUT BEING A PRACTICAL LEADER, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS HE GOT AN IDEA. HE WENT TO THE PHONE BOOTH, CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ASKED, "IS THE COMING WINTER GOING TO BE COLD?"

"IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE QUITE COLD," THE
METEOROLOGIST AT THE WEATHER SERVICE RESPONDED.

SO THE CHIEF WENT BACK TO HIS PEOPLE AND TOLD THEM TO COLLECT EVEN MORE FIREWOOD IN ORDER TO BE PREPARED.

A WEEK LATER HE CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN. "DOES IT STILL LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY COLD WINTER?"

"YES," THE MAN AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN REPLIED, "IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY COLD WINTER."

THE CHIEF AGAIN WENT BACK TO HIS PEOPLE AND ORDERED THEM TO COLLECT EVERY SCRAP OF FIREWOOD THEY COULD FIND.

TWO WEEKS LATER THE CHIEF CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN. "ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT THE WINTER IS GOING TO BE VERY COLD?"

"ABSOLUTELY," THE MAN REPLIED. "IT'S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST WINTERS WE'VE EVER SEEN."

"HOW CAN YOU BE SO SURE?" THE CHIEF ASKED.

THE WEATHERMAN REPLIED, "THE INDIANS ARE COLLECTING FIREWOOD LIKE CRAZY."
 
Posts: 298 | Registered: Mon 21 November 2005Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Member currently serving 10 day suspension for TOS violation
Picture of LISAJACKSON
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U.S. COAST GUARD
THIRTEENTH DISTRICT (DHS)
PRESS RELEASE 11/7/2007
COAST GUARD SUSPENDS SEARCH NEAR POINT MONROE

SEATTLE- THE COAST GUARD SUSPENDED ITS SEARCH OF THE WATER NEAR POINT MONROE. WAS., TODAY AT APPROXIMATELY 7:30 P.M.
NO EVIDENCE OF DISTRESS OR PEOPLE IN THE WATER WERE DISCOVERED AFTER SERVERAL HOURS SEARCHING BY A COAST GUARD HH-65 HELICOPTER CREW AND THE CREW OF THE COAST GUARD CUTTER ORCAS, THE COAST GUARD BEGAN SEARCHING THE AREA AFTER LOCATING TWO SHEENS AND FOUR LIFEJACKETS IN THE VICINITY

THE WATER WITHIN THE SEARCH AREA IS A HEAVEY TRAFFIC AREA FOR BOATING AND NO REPORTS OF MISSING VESSELS, SIGHTING OF DISTRESS ,OR CALLS FOR HELP WERE REPORTED TO THE COAST GUARD.

A 25 FOOT RESPONSE BOAT FROM THE COAST GUARD SECTOR SEATTLE SPOTTED THE FIRST LIFEJACKET AT 1 P.M. NEAR POINT MEADOW NORTH OF ELLIOTT BAY
IN SEATTLE ANOTHER THREE LIFEJACKET'S WERE DISCOVERED FLOATING IN THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER BY THE COAST GUARD CUTTER ORCAS, HOMEPORTED IN COOS BAY, ORE., AND THE HH-65 HELICOPTER CREW FROM AIR STATION PORT ANGELES.
TWO LIGHT SHEENS WERE SPOTTED ON THE WATER AT APPROXIMATELY 3: P.M. COAST GUARD PULLUTION INSPECTORS ARE INVESTIGATING THE SHEENS.

COAST GUARD, SAVING LIVES SINCE 1790
 
Posts: 206 | Registered: Thu 22 February 2007Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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