It's way to early to know for sure. I believe any where from TX-LA border west to the Big Bend of Florida all have equal chances. The biggest thing is it could affect a very large artea of that so all need to be watching and paying attention. The track will form better as each day passes. Mike
I am going to use this thread to post specifics because if anything is certain, its that we have a potential for a landfalling US Hurricane this weekend.
I think if I personally have learned anything this season, its that things can and will change. We have seen several oddities this year with these storms, and I suspect this will continue. I have a call into some meterologist friends who have a passion for Tropical systems. Ill post an update with their thoughts.
T
This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1,
Tony, Would that be a retied GMCS? If so his blogs and forcast on another web sight are very good. It looks like it could get very busy in the Atlantic and more coming off of the African coast the next few days.
Well, I can tell ya every East Coast Emergency Management Office has been placed on disaster alert, and thats not good news.
quote:
The gulf coast states, in anticipation, of Hurricane Gustav are ramping up operations for a potential Category 3 hurricane.
EMAC Leadership would like to pre-identify EMAC A-Team Members for POTENTIAL deployment into the impacted state emergency management operations centers upon their request.
Expected deployment date would be this Friday or Saturday (August 29 or 30).
Individuals who are qualified for EMAC A-Team deployment and have approval from their State Director for EMAC A-Team Deployment should notify the NEMA EMAC Coordinator to provide their name & contact information.
Please only e-mail if you have approval from your State Director and would be available for deployment.
In all my years of living in Florida I don't think I'vr seen a graphic like the one on the National Hurrican Center site showing the wind probabilities on both sides of Florida. Beginning to feel like a snadwich.
Yeah... it's always good to vote in an elementary schoolteacher to run a state based on what race her opponent was... We all see how that worked out with Katrina. Luckily, we got Jindal elected this time!
This message has been edited. Last edited by: baloo0136,
I think Bobby Jindal will do just fine. Based on the fact that he already declared the state, he made a great call.
I had an email asking about the models posted above. They are all decent when it comes to comes to Hurricanes. Very few models like the GFDL are a Hurricane forecasting model only, which gives it some credability. You will notice that the NHC will usually lay its forecast near the middle of the guidance. What you are looking for is trends, where one, two, or three systems begin forecasting something other than what everyone else it doing. Like the trend to the West you saw with Gus. When you see them spread out between Corpus and Pensacola, is usually means somewhere down the middle will be actual landfall.
Now if several of the models shift track West towards Texas, that may be something to start getting concerned about. Right now, it appears the adjustment away from New Orleans proper was because the center reformed yesterday, and if I were a betting man, I wouldnt rule out the North Texas Coaast just yet.
I will leave you with this comment from the NHC before I call it a night:
quote:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR.
And we have a rapid intensification cycle occuring!!!
Gus is now a strong Cat 3, and will probably reach Cat 4 intensity today. At this intensity, these storms will begin eye wall replacement cycles, and you will see them fluctuate in intensity during this time. The model runs have come into agreement on landfall, and residents from Port Aurthor to Gullfport need to begin preparing for significant flooding rain, and damaging winds, and storm surge.
militia, if you have access to archived models of Katrina, how do they compare to the Gustav models, and what can this comparison tell us about how bad things are going to be?
Rumor from MEMA is that Gus is now a Cat 5. Sat presentation doesnt support that just yet.
I have a long Powerpoint I did on Katrina and the models, let me find it. The models locked onto New Orleans about three days from landfall and stayed there until landfall. As far as how bad it will be? Pretty darn bad. I just got placed on standby to deploy and lead a 5 person team into the Miss EOC. This storm is coming in at a perfect angle to flood New Orleans again.
Hurricane Watch now in effect from High Island Texas to Florabama. If you live in this warning zone, you will feel an effect from this storm. It is now predicted to make landfall as a Cat 4.
Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans at 8AM.
T
This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1,
Hurricane Warnings now in effect for the North Gulf Coast. There is wide agreement that Gus is at a turning point in its life, and the next 12-18 hrs will tell us alot about at what strength and where he will make landfall.
Gus is now approaching the edge of the Gulf Loop Current. Sea surface temps here are easily supportive of intensification. If Gus is going to get much stronger, he has a 12-18 hr window to do it in, or the intensity is set at landfall at a minimal Cat 3 storm. There are no ifs about it.
If intensification does occur, it may be rapid, and it may carry the storm to landfall as a Cat 4. I do notice that Gus has a nappy headed appearance on Sat this morning, and it looks similar to how Opal and Camille appeared in the Gulf. There is also some indication that he is moving faster than forecasted. This would lead to eariler landfall than forecasted if it continues.
The weather channel will hold a conference call for this storm today. If anyone is interested, its free. Just let me know, and if you are a Gulf Coast unit, you can even ask the famous Dr Steve Lyons a few questions. email me at aloconte@yahoo.com and Ill send you the call in info.
