And she becomes a Hurricane. Interesting to note that it was 12 years to the day. July 7th 1996 that the other storm in the Atlantic was upgraded to Hurricane Bertha.

I agree, it doesnt look good got Bermuda at all. Still a little early for the Sea Surface temps to support a major Cat 3+ Hurricane that far North, but a strong Cat 1 is certainly not out of the question.

T

Guess its not TOO early
Bermuda looks to be in the un-lucky one... but at least it looks to be staying away from the US.

-Brechty-

quote:

Guess its not TOO early
Bermuda looks to be in the un-lucky one... but at least it looks to be staying away from the US.

-Brechty-

I meant as far North as Bermuda. As in Bermuda will not see a Cat 3 with the current SSTs. But she is a Cat 3 now, and an awesome sight when they are not doing any damage.

T

Militia any other tropical action in your models?

Mike

Ill post this from the HPC for reference and then comment:

quote:

TROPICS
SEE NHC/OPC ADVISORIES AND PRODUCTS FOR BERTHA. ELSW THE LONGER TERM MEAN PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA INTO NRN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTD WRLY TRACK OF ANY SYSTEMS EXITING AFRICA. LONGER TERM SHEAR FORECASTS OF ECMWF/GFS ENS MEANS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS/ECMWF TAKE A NUMBER OF WAVES WWD TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONGER TERM. MONITOR NHC OUTLOOKS

To summarize, the tropical environment is becomming increasingly favorable for development. This is especially the case for Cape Verde storms. The models indicate we may very well see yet another storm form off of Africa and take the long trip across over the next two weeks.

As far as my thoughts on the models, several are showing initiation of something near the carribean next week. This storm rides over Puerto Rico and makes a direct hit on the East Coast. One model shows up to 5 systems developing over the next few weeks. I am NOT at the point yet, where I am ready to post what I call a "Potential Development Statement" like the one I did before Bertha moved off of Africa. I need to see the models showing the same idea for several runs, before I get convienced.

I have to brief my boss on the potentials and begin ramp up of the EOC operations when these storms look like they will form, and I copy some of the logic here since most of you are on the coast.

T

Models continue to show several things. One is that Bertha will be with us for a while. The steering currents are non exsistant over the storm, and it seems they will remain that way until mid next week. Bertha will more than likely set a record for the logest lived July Tropical System.

Potential Development Statement:

The second thing that is becomming clear, is that we will indeed have another storm shortly. Looking at the timing of the new storm, and the path, it appears the low that will eventually become our new storm may have already left the African coast.

This new storm is now showing up in every run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. It needs to be said that this model has been excellent in forecasting that something is coming. It moves the storm towards Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, and then turns it NW, making a run at the East Coast. On some runs, it makes landfall in North Carolina, on others, it recurves very close to the shore.

The new storm seems to be well developed by the 17th. We should see some sort development beginning on the 15th or 16th. By the 21st, models indicate its a intensifying Hurricane.

Those with interests or future travel plans to any of the areas above need to keep this in mind.

Again, the GFS is great about showing us something is coming. Its not that great in telling us where it will go. In many cases, the models need to initiate runs with the new system. It could very well move across FL and into the gulf at this point.

T

Thanks for the updates.

Mike

Morning Satt images indicate an area of storms has formed between the Leeward Islands and Africa. This appears to be the wave some models were hetting on for development.



In addition, a front fractured off of South Carolina producing an area of low pressure. This new system also has the possibility of some development over the next few days.

T

The area in question has been designated a threat for development. Here is the model and image suite on this storm. These should auto update.





















T

Wow looks like teh Atlantic is heating up. Lots of energy coming off of the coast of Africa. The question is when will Christabol and Dolly form?

Mike

Only a matter of time now.

Here is an interesting note:

quote:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

...BERTHA NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN HISTORY...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

T

There is a high potantial we will have Cristobal and Dolly over the next two days.

We have a storm rapidly forming off of South Carolina. This is the storm that was mentioned a day or two ago.

T

Tropical Depression #3 forms off GA/SC coast. All those with interest from VA BEach South to Tybee should pay attention.

My personal thought...Tropical Storm Cristobal, with a 26% chance of gaining Hurricane Category I status. It all depends on how close the system sits on the coast.

I will certainly agree that it has a small chance at becoming a Hurricane, but I am always reminded that Humberto went from not even declared to a Cat 1 Hurricane with 24 hrs last year.

One thing I do notice is that storms this year seem to have a difficult time getting their act together. The storm will erupt and then die down. Normal to one extent, but that storm in the Carribean has been hovering near TD status for what? A week now?

At the other extreme, you have Bertha, still a Hurricane, and still screwing around in the Atlantic. Advisory 70+ here shortly.

T

Tony,

You and Watt65 called it.

Tropical Storm off South Carolina

Damm I 'am glad, we were able to convince you to keep making those weather posts of yours.

Please keep up the GRRRRRRRRREAT Work.

Jack

Thanks Jack. I actually start forecasting class next spring, so hopefully it gets better.

A side note that my Tropical Alert group hit 2,600 subscribers this morning. That group stated as a small group of about 10 employees. I decided to open it for public registration and it slowely built to something more.

T

Tony,

from 10 to 2600. You must be doing something right. Bravo Zulu.

Jack

Two interesting features showing up in addition to Bartha and Cristobal. The storm in the carribean has winds that are already at Tropical Storm strength. The one big criteria for being classified as one is missing, and thats a closed low level circulation. Its like the little storm that could, it keeps trying but never seems to make the cut. Its day may finally come tomorrow.

There is a HUGE wave about to pull off of Africa and Sat images indicate it already has some strong rotation. Numerous models are now showing another storm developing off of Africa, and this cell is no doubt a candidate. The development and timing of the storm seem to line up. More to follow I am sure.

T

Overnight, very strong storms formed to the North of the disturbance in the Carribean. NOAA sent in a recon plane this morning and it appears they found at least a minimal circulation. With that, the last criteria for classification has been meet, and advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are being initiated.

ALL Coasties, their famlies, and those with travel plans to or near the West Gulf Coast next week should monitor this storm closely. The models are predicting landfall at the TX, Mexico border, but the circulation seems to be further North than what the models think already. This will cause an error, and the forecasted path would have to be adjusted North.

T

Dolly has formed now the question is where will she go. Current models have her going into Tx Mexico border. But it is early and will the models move her to the north? They seem to always do. I hope they don't but the rain would be welcome in the SE.

Mike