I locked the old tropical thread because it became way to long and filled with old storm info.



If some models are to be believed, we have a very active tropical period coming over the next few weeks of August. Seems the Atlantic was catching her breath for the next round.

Two systems are currently being watched for development, both off of Africa. Its hard for me to believe that if some of the models are showing multiple (at least 3) storms ongoing at the same time in the Atlantic, and Satellite images indicate several favorable candidates already, that one or more of these storms will not becoma a Hurricane.

What is certain, is that we have a favorable environment. One of the usual suspects in preventing development (Sahara Dust Plume), doesnt appear to be a factor. Another interesting note, is that the Bermuda High, which steers these storms across the Atlantic, is forecast to retrograde or move SW. This would indicate an increased risk for mainland US landfall.

Breaker Breaker 1-9, Florida, ya got your ears on, come back...

T

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By far the most horrific model runs in US History. Lets hope this is just one run. If this becomes reality, we will see an evacuation that puts New Orleans to shame.


GFS Run

T

That is a scary model run glad they ain't that accurate over 4-5 days.

Mike

I sure as heck am not buying a run like that!!! All of the models now seem to agree we have a storm or two coming, but the higher threat at this point seems to be to Florida from what I am picking up. Not saying the Carolinas are out of the woods, but I personally need to see a model run on something more than a low pressure area before I have any sort of confidence on where it may go.

T

Its pretty clear looking at this mornings Sat images that we have a storm developing around the Northern Antilees. The Depression upgrade should be out today if it continues to organize.

For planning, heres the models tracks.



T

Should bring some good surf to NE waters mid week or so?

You know, there are two things I love about Meterology. First, it the only thing that every single person in the world has in common. We all see it, we all have to deal with it.

Second, its never predictable. When you think you have seen the best, mother nature will pull out one more trick.

This is how our storm appeared yesterday afternoon:


You would think that this was at least a Cat 1 Hurricane. It appears better organized than some Cat 1s we have seen. But further investigation shows that there are several circulation centers under this thing, and they are not lined up. There is no distinct low level center, which is why this hasnt been upgraded. Taking a look at the radar out of PR this morning, I see at least three seperate circulations.

This storm still has some potential, but its moving over mountainous areas, and that isnt a good thing for a developing system.

Models still show another storm forming behind this one. Again, there are plenty of potential candidates running around, and I would be surprised if we dont end next week with another threat.

T

Morning Tony,

I'm a big believer in natural patterns and its just a matter of us looking long eneough and understanding what we are looking at till we start getting it right more often. I'm thinking there are more natural weather patterns and cycles than the abnormal type?

It looks like a big enough strom?
I'm heading to the cape next weekend and then we are taking a 34' small boat over to the vinyard, what's your prediction on the weather for fri-sun next week?

Hope all is well,
Dick

Looks like we have Fay. Look out Florida.
Mike

Yep, we have Fay. The term "strange" with storms this year continues as we have yet another storm that has intensified over land.

Ohhh, I have got to show ya this. Its one of the model runs that stood out this afternoon. This would be a very strong Fay, crushing Appalachacola FL as a 926MB Category 4 Hurricane next week.

We have an interesting week ahead??



Dick

Let me take a look and ill let you know.

T

Dick

Let me post a discussion from Henry Margusity over at Accuweather. Henry is a meterologist.

quote:

EURO HAS THE ULTIMATE DISASTER FOR THE EAST COAST, WHILE GFS HAS THE SOUTHEAST GETTING CRUSHED...


The system over Puerto Rico this morning, while not being classified as a TD yet, is probably a TD none-the-less, and will move through the Bahamas and along the Florida coast to a position off Jacksonville, Fla. by Wednesday. The storm will go through an intensification process late in the game and could become a significant hurricane for the Southeast or even as far north as New England. The Euro has the storm creeping up the coast and slamming NYC, Long Island and New England by August 24. The GFS takes the storm into the Southeast around Charleston late in the week. The DGEX takes the storm off the coast, but slams eastern New England Friday. So what does this all mean?

1. It's looking more likely that there will be a hurricane threat along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to Maine next week.

2. The storm may become a significant hurricane that intensifies late in the game, meaning once it gets to Florida.

3. The two areas right now that look like they could get hit are the South Carolina/North Carolina coast and New England.

4. Major cities like Miami, Philly, New York City and Boston could be impacted by the storm.

What should people do? Those living along the coast from Florida to the Outer Banks of N.C. should be checking to into getting supplies now in case the hurricane comes their way. Folks in New Jersey and New England should just be aware that something is lurking and be ready to make hurricane preparations if needed.

I personally cant turn a blind eye to the fact that several of the models repeatedly show a Hurricane impacting NYC late next week. Historically speaking, it has happened before, and it will certainly happen again.

In the back of my mind, I have to wonder if the models are hinting at a pattern that is supportive of a NYC strike, and thats what we are seeing.

Now what I am not convienced about, is that the system the models are picking up on, is Fay. There is an undeniable shift in most of the models to the West with Fay. It has been my experience that when models begin shifting a track in a certain direction, that this will continue until the storm becomes established as a Hurricane, and the models start their runs with it as one. That hasnt happened yet with Fay.

Do I believe that Fay could take a turn North next week and scrape the East Florida coast and much of the Eastern seaboard before plowing into NYC? Sure it could, but I dont see that as being a likely senario at this time.

What I think may be more likely, is that the models see a pattern that is supportive of a East Coast landfalling Hurricane, and the storm that may eventually be the suspect, hasnt even formed yet, but the energy is out there somewhere.

So to answer your question, I cant say the Cape is completely out of the woods yet for next weekend, but it does look better. Once Fay makes her turn North, we will have a better idea of where she may go in the long run.

T

Its becomming pretty clear this morning that Fay will become a Hurricane. Looking at the long range climate stuff for next week, there appears to be little that would hold off strengthening. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAY MAY BECOME A CAT 3 OR HIGHER HURRICANE IN THE GULF. Everyone from New Orleans to the Florida Keys needs to keep an eye on this storm.
























T

WOW, 45 mph winds lets all get excited.
EM1

Scotty, I'm with ya on that one.... it's sorta like getting 1" of snow in DC... Panic time.

It's a storm... NOT a hurricane!

Wray...

I wonder how many of 1,500 residents thought the same thing about Katrina before they died?

I wonder how many Florida residents thought the same thing about Wilma, or Andrew, or Charley when it was forecast to make landfall as a minimal Hurricane only to make landfall as a Cat 4, and right before they lost their house.

In my job field, this mentality is our worst nightmare. No matter how much warning you give, you still have those residents who think they have seen it all. Thats why in my job field; we like to plan ahead for you guys. Only its by reserving body bags. Breathing or not, doesnt matter. Its a plan for all Americans!! So here ya go, a salute to you adn Scotty If it wasnt for you guys, people in my line of work wouldnt have jobs.

Wray

As an Emergency Manager in DC, I can tell you that 1" of snow can bring the transportation system to parade rest. 1" of snow can cause more traffic accidents than you can imagine.

T

This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1,

Tony, I don't think it is fair to compare a Category 5 hurricane to a tropical storm..... same thing for the other "hurricanes" you mentioned. Do you honestly think Fay could turn into a Cat 4 hurricane? Give me your odds of that happening.... best guess....(honest guess between you and me)

I'm well aware of how those in the DC area can not cope with one inch of snow.. I was there from 1978-1982. I also lived in NY where we often got over a foot of snow.

Don't get me wrong.. I'm not saying people shouldn't prepare for a "hurricane" even if Fay is only a tropical storm... but I'm a realist.... and I don't over react on most things. With your job, I would assume "over reacting" is a good and normal posture to take.

Wray...

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Wray

Your right, there is no comparison between a Cat 5 and a TS. There can be no arguement there. Now let me start with what we do know. We know that an open tropical wave can intensify into a Hurricane in 18 hours. We know this because Earnesto did it last year. We know that a Cat 1 Hurricane can intensify into a Cat 5 within 24 hours. We know this as fact because Wilma did it in 2005. So I think we can deduct that an open wave can intensify into a Cat 5 Hurricane within 48 hours.

Now with Fay, lets start with whats given. We know for a fact we have a storm. We know for a fact that the Sea Surface Temperatures in between Fay, and any landfall in the GOM are in the upper 80s, and we know these temperatures can easily sustain a major Hurricane. We know that the wind sheer will be minimal over the storm for most of its lifetime. This leaves the only obstacle for intensification being land, and how long the storm stays over Cuba.

Can I sit here and tell you that Fay will be a Cat 4 at landfall? I can certainly tell you its possible based on everything I covered above. All you need is one quick burst over the core of this thing, and its game on.

Is it likely to be a Cat 4 at landfall? Of course not, but what is extremely likely, is that it will be at least a Cat 1 at landfall, regardless of anything else you read.

As far as the over reacting, let me tell you a story. On the morning of June 16th, 2008, I was fly fishing in Lake Shelby, near Gulf Shores AL. I have the opportunity to take one, maybe two vacations a year, aand this was one of them. At about 6:30 in the morning, my cell phone begins erupting with call after call. We have a major water main break in DC. We have them all the time, no big deal. I didnt think anything of it until I got a call from the freakin Washington Post, asking why I wasnt sending alerts to the public on a boiled water advisory. I left competant staff in charge, or so I thought, aand told them it was the utilities responsibility to inform their customers. I spent the next week at the beach answeing calls and being obliterated by the Washington Post over a normal every day event that I didnt "over react" too.

Ill quote the lead off of the article:

quote:

Montgomery County's emergency e-mail notification system failed to send alerts about Sunday night's major water main break and the risk for unhealthy drinking water to tens of thousands of residents because the two employees who know how to operate the system were out of town, the county's top homeland security official said yesterday.

Here is the rest of the article. I "failed", and the obly thing I did, was designate someone as acting, and left for a vacation.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you dont profession, and ill be damned if a resident gets killed on my watch because I didnt.

T

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Well I for one hope Fay stays well clear of the Gulf. I am on a platform 150nm south of Mobile, Al.

My Sailor son is stationed at MacDill ... I'm following this closely. Where we're from, dealing with severe weather usually involves snow shovels & ice-melt. This will be a new adventure for him, to say the least!

Thanks for sharing Tony. That was a good bit of info on hurricanes! You guys down south should probably secure the patio furniture.

Peace,
Dick