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Military.com Forums Coast Guard Discussions Weather Related Announcements TS Edouard Forms TEXAS HIT AGAIN!! Topic Closed|
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes  |
Figured it was time for a new thread to discuss this season. There appears to be universal agreement that we will see yet another above average season. Colorado State University should be coming out with an updated outlook on April 9th.
If the severe weather season is any indication of things to come, we may be in for a wild ride. T This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1, |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
First potential tropical candidate now showing up on long range models. Seems to be a solid tropical storm at least.
Seems to form in the Western Carribean and move towards FLorida. From there, the system either makes a run up the East Coast or moves towards the Mobile area. Way to early to get into the when and where, but the fact that its showing up on every Global Forecast System run is something to keep an eye on around the first week of June. T |
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I hit the road PCS northbound for Ohio the day before the season officially kicks in! Looks like I'll be dealing more with snow than 'canes now!
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I intend to live forever. So far, so good. |
Tony, I believe they said that last year, but things fizzled out... Sorry, I just can't buy into these looooong range predictions... Wray..  |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
Wray You're not the only one. I bit off on this in 2006, rang the alarm, and only managed to join everyone else in looking foolish. I briefly mention the season "outlooks" now, with a wait and see mentality. Understand that there is a difference between an outlook and a model run. One has a 50-50 chance of being right. The models have a higher chance, and that chance increases with ever run that shows the exact same thing. T |
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I intend to live forever. So far, so good. |
I understand, but in my mind I consider it as accurate as predicting what the gas prices will be in 2010...
 Although, you may have a better shot at them, than the wx. Wray.. |
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"going to talk and cause suspicion" |
Someone once told me ten days out is the best they can do perdicting the weather and even then there is a lot of error?
Peace, Dick |
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10 days?!? Sometimes they have problems predicting TODAYS's weather when TODAY has already started!  |
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VISTED THE NATIONAL WEATHER CENTER BUILDING IN WILLMINGTON NC IT HAD NO WINDOWS HOW CAN YOU TELL THE WEATHER IF YOU HAVE NO WINDOWS
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I have it from good authority that the Gulf Coast will not have a single hurricane this year.
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I intend to live forever. So far, so good. |
I think that Wal Mart greeter got fired tonight....  Wray.. |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
First storm of the year forms exactly where the models said it would. It just didnt move where they thought it would.
We just witnessed an extremely rare event where a named storm forms in the Pacific, moves ashore, crosses central America, reforms in the Atlantic, and restrengthens into another TS. T |
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Farmers Almanac mentions an average season with most storms remaining off shore on the eastern seaboard. can't remember what it said regarding the gulf of mexico.
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Is that because it is an election year and Bush will not fire up the hurricane machine again? |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
Ok, first decent Tropical candidate seems to be on the map in numerous long range models. Seems our next system will develop off of Africa and will become a Cape Verde Hurricane. In fact the wave thats suspected is still in the middle of Africa. Way to early to get into details of landfall, but some models do bring it to US landfall. One near GA.
The key will be to see if something forms just off the African coast around Wed. T |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
Its Wed, and we now have Tropical Depression 2 in the Atlantic. Interesting to note, that this storm will be named Bertha once it reaches a Tropical Storm status.
This one has the potential to be a long track storm. T |
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Here is the latest as of Fri morning. TS Bertha.
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
Here is the whole suite:
          The models indicate this storm may become a Hurricane during the next three days. From there, most models indicate it will recurve out to sea, but a few still bring it very close to the East Coast. The model guidance continues to shift the storm West prior to the recurve, and that increases a US effect with each run. T This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1, |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
Some good news on this storm. The approach to the US East Coast was critial upon when and if the storm strengthened. A weaker storm would allow more of a West path towards the coast, and a stronger storm would take more of a North path as the stronger storm gets picked up by a ridge just North. A weaker storm would stay below the steering winds of the ridge.
Sat images indicate the long awaited strengthening has started and sat overpasses indicate an eye is beginning to form. The system will probably be upgraded to a Hurricane tonight or tomorrow. Not quite the time to sound the all clear, but its looking better for the US. T This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1, |
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Sure does not look good for Bermuda.
Jack |
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Topic Closed Military.com Forums Coast Guard Discussions Weather Related Announcements TS Edouard Forms TEXAS HIT AGAIN!!
