After a quiet week, there are some interesting things coming into view on the models from the Tropical front.

For several days now, all of the models have been indicating some sort of low pressure formation off the SE US Coast this week. This is a high confidence forcast because they all show this. So what does this mean???

It means that we almost certainly have a storm coming. What is not certain is what shape this storm may arrive in. There are two model camps to choose from. In one camp, the models make this a full blown Hurricane and have landfall in NC. In the other, we have a strong subtropical "Noreaster" type system.

This potential is seperate from and not related to the storm currently being watched for formation South of Puerto Rico. Although some models do show this storm approaching the US as well.

What I think is more than likely is a middle of the road system. It may begin as a sub tropical low pressure system with an open core, and then transition to a tropical system. I believe a Tropical or Subtropical Storm is likely, and perhaps similar to Hanna a few weeks ago. One cannot rule out a full transition to tropical and a Hurricane, but that appears to be an extreme senario at this point.

If you live anywhere Cape Cod and South, break out those surf boards. Certainly some decent waves a coming.

T

In California there has been mud slides, the hills caught on fire and took all the grass and trees. I'm living in earthqake heaven. I prepare for an earthquake I have important records in the trunk of my car, I have important records in my house. I live in cement heaven so I don't get the mud slides. the weather is changing. We used to get heat in Sept Heat comes in Oct and Nov now. The earth is changing.