Just about every model is playing with something in the Carribean next week. The location and strength of the storm certainly suggest tropical cyclone potential. Currently, the models take it over/near Florida.

Hurricane Season 2009 begins.

T

here is what I found on NOAA

Bring it on.. I'm ready.

Wray...

I'll take the cold and snow. It may huff and puff up here but it isn't going to blow your house down.

Looks like we could have our first name storm of the season by Monday. Most of the experts are not giving it much of a chance to become nothing more than a cat one if that. More of a rain maker and we need the rain up around Mobile, AL. It looks more like an FL event, but the models don't track well with tropical waves.

I found the below on http://www.hardcoreweather.com

RGD
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"From Crown Weather: posted 6/27/09 @ 0709

I am closely monitoring a tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean this morning. This disturbance has been tagged Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance have decreased somewhat over the past few hours, however, satellite imagery does show a feeder band with a curved appearance on the east side of the tropical wave axis. Curved bands like what we are seeing is a sign of organization because that means we are experiencing some low to mid level turning in the atmosphere which would force the convection to arc this way. So, even though convection has waned some overnight, this disturbance is organized and I suspect we will see another blowup of thunderstorm activity as the morning progresses.

I still do not think we will see development from this disturbance today as a low level center has not formed and this is needed for significant development. At this point, I think a track through the Yucatan Straits tonight seems more and more likely rather than a track over the Yucatan Peninsula as was thought yesterday at this time. Once this system reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, I think the chances of tropical cyclone development will increase markedly. The reason for this is because wind shear values drop to a favorable 5 knots across the southern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either near normal or slightly above normal and these factors will create a favorable environment for Invest 93L to develop into a tropical storm.

As for potential track and intensity once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico: I think Invest 93L stands a pretty good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Ana by around Monday. I think this system will be tracking close to due north once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and then should curve north-northeast or northeast into the western Florida coastline sometime on Tuesday. The model guidance consensus seems to be pointing towards this as they all have shifted their tracks eastward since yesterday. As for development and intensification, if Invest 93L misses or clips the Yucatan Peninsula, then development could occur as early as late tonight or on Sunday. In fact, if there is a significant burst of convection that can bring the mid-level circulation down to the surface, then it would be game on and development into a tropical depression and tropical storm would commence. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 93L should be able to develop and intensify into at least a tropical storm. However, rapid intensification is not anticipated at this time.

Residents and vacationers in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and particularly the west coast of Florida should pay close attention to the latest updates concerning Invest 93L. I think at the very least, there is the threat for gale force winds and heavy rainfall for the Yucatan Peninsula during Sunday and Monday. After that, there is the slight chance for gale force to tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall for western Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

In conclusion, I do not expect Invest 93L to become a tropical depression today or tonight. Development into a tropical depression seems more likely on Sunday into Sunday night once Invest 93L reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico."