That is what i like to see. Keep heading away from PR.

T-

Seeing as though you seem to have this part under control, why don't you head down this way and help me pack up and run if it enters the Gulf!

daddy_of_faith

I don't know why you are complaining, you are on the nice side of the island.

Living here on the left coast of the east coast (Clearwater,Fl Area) I don't know if I should panic now or wait for the weekend. The local TV weather coverage has just received their order from LL Bean for their reporters annual treck to the beach to give us up to the minute reports on how bad it is. I still laugh at the site of one of these fools giving a report one year saying how bad it was and a little kid with a sand pail and shovel walked behind him during the report.

Been in this area for 30+ years and the incident rate of hurricanes is very low in this immediate area. We have had more damage from no-name storms than from hurricanes in recent history.

Pinellas County's Emergency Management is considered one of the best even though it has not been severely tested. As with all low lying areas evacuation is a problem if not taken seriously by the residents. Wait to long and the back up would cause major grid lock.

We go through the ritual every year of stocking up on hurricane supplies, rebuilding high anxiety "This could be the year". Then breathe a sigh of relief when "We lucked out again".
It's a necessary part of living in this area. It's amazing how ill prepaired people are for this
yearly event.

I'm fortunate that I live in a higher elevation of the county (65'). If a storm surge did hit this area Pinellas County would end up as two idividual islands with no way out. We are considered a non-evacuation zone. Fine with me. I'd sooner take my chances staying than being out on the road stuck in an area with 2'-10' elevation.

As hard as they try, weather forcasting is still not an exact science. Yes, we have more info available. But, if you don't like the weather change the channel. To many opinions out there. I feel their should be one source of information in these situations. Why confuse the issue.

So, I guess this weekend I'll fill up the safety cans with gas for the generator, run a test on the distribution panel, shut it down , have a rum and coke and make up the invite list for the hurricane parties for this year. It's tough living in the "Land of Sunshine"

quote:

Originally posted by OSChopeful:
daddy_of_faith

I don't know why you are complaining, you are on the nice side of the island.

I realize that, but I also know that we loose power for days even if it is sunny. I don't want to know what happens if you throw a little wind around.

quote:

Pinellas County's Emergency Management is considered one of the best even though it has not been severely tested.

Secure this morale, Pinellas who?? I would have to disagree.

quote:

Seeing as though you seem to have this part under control, why don't you head down this way and help me pack up and run if it enters the Gulf!

Seth

I am not sure I ever have anything under control. But you know I would head that way in a second if you needed help. So you want to hear the internal thoughts on where this might be going? With this job, I get briefed daily from the National Guard on National response capability, and as far as forecasting, briefs from NOAA, NHC, Accuweather, and the Weather Channel. Generally speaking, I take all of it, interpret some of it, summarize a little of it, and present it to my boss who understands none of it.

T

Militia, I sure appreciate these updates. My son (who is on a cutter right now) and his fiance (also in the CG) are getting married on Sept.1 under a tent on the coast of Maine. I am keeping a watchful eye out, fingers and everything else crossed that no majors storms are heading this way. I'm almost afraid to look!

Seth,

If you are going to run, Don't run West.
Tropical Depression Five

TEXAS


SKI,
Very Best Wishes to the Happy Couple. May they always be blessed.


Jack

Here on the coast of California it's windy and hot. Can't believe the wind isn't disapating the heat. I have 3 fans on a one room apt

Here in St. Louis Missouri it was 105 degrees today. A new record for this date. The previous record was set in the 1930's.

quote:

Militia, I sure appreciate these updates. My son (who is on a cutter right now) and his fiance (also in the CG) are getting married on Sept.1 under a tent on the coast of Maine. I am keeping a watchful eye out, fingers and everything else crossed that no majors storms are heading this way. I'm almost afraid to look!

Thanks, the first long range models start forecasting for September 1st tomorrow morning. Ill take a look and see if there is anything going on in Maine.

With that, I need to mention some of the current thinking on Dean. I cant post the briefs themselves because of non disclosure agreements, but I will summarize.

All models forecast strong high pressure over the Carribean and Gulf around the time Dean gets there. With that, and little sheer forecast, the stage is set for nothing to stop Dean from achieving at least major Hurricane (Cat 3) status in 4 days. Water temperatures in both areas are quite capable of supporting a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane. The heat content is very deep, and warmer than the area was for Katrina. In fact, the newest guidance has a Cat 4 in the Yucatan channel. At this point, anyone from Brownesville to Panama City need to keep an eye on this storm. The only luck might be a strike on the Yucatan which would weaken the storm, but models indicate that if this were to happen, intensification would occur immediately upon the eye reaching the other side.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that Galveston-Brownsville keep showing up on the landfall runs. That logic continues, and every run that continues to show that possability only increases the concern.

Wish I had some better news, but thats what I pick up from the folks at NOAA HQs.

T

This message has been edited. Last edited by: militia1,

What a week makes. High 70's today, mostly cloudy. Spent a couple hours putting together the new trampoline for the kids before coming to work. I feel like I just got beat up by 3 or 4 BM's. Those new non-spring type tramp's are a good workout setting up. 1AM at work and I could use a little nap (or advil...)

Thanks for the updates Tony. Very interesting and informative posts.
Semper P,

Jongski

I took a look at the long range models for the 1st, High pressure well established over Maine. No rain or storms within 500 miles. Thats 15 days out though.

ASM3

Thanks, it makes no sense to have all this info, and not post it for the folks who probably really need it.

Dean Update:

The long anticipated intensification phase has started. Overall, the tracking logic remains the same. A few things cause some additional concern today. A few of the models want to pull the Hurricane NW around day 3. This change is really evident in the GFDL model, which is the model thats animated on the prior page. For the first time, the agencies are beginning to talk about the real possibility of a Cat 5 and the official NHC forecast stops the intensity at 149MPH. One thing that the forecasts repeatedly fail to notice is the forward speed of the storm. An intensifying Cat 2 Hurricane moving at 24MPH is pretty rare. Accuweather feels the East Coast and Florida are in the all clear. Still some concern about everyone else from roughly Mobile to Brownesville.

With that, shipmates and families located in those areas need to begin planning for the possibility of a dangerous landfalling Hurricane sometime around next Tuesday or Wednesday.

T

quote:

With that, shipmates and families located in those areas need to begin planning for the possibility of a dangerous landfalling Hurricane sometime around next Tuesday or Wednesday.

T

I don't want to...but I am. Hopefully this thing stays clear of the U.S., but each forecast continually shows a greater possibility of the Northward curvature. We should have a better idea come Sat/Sun.

T

Keep me posted! You have my email.

Tony,

Here in this part of northern California, we (usually) don't see huricanes although when there's an El Nino system off of South America, the winter weather can get a little screwy. We have been seeing a few more tornados over the past few years but very few have been touching ground. Still, the missus and I purchased a Weather warning radio just in case.

Now, the only real threat, outside of long a$$ droughts that affect this area are earthquakes. To the west of us are the San Andreas, Hayward and the Rogers Creek fault zones. Directly underneith of us (in Vacaville) is the Vaca Fault which hasn't really done any mischief since 1892 when the town of Winters, about 15 miles north of here, was virtually destroyed by an shaker generated on the Vaca fault.

If your agency could somehow learn to predict earthquakes, it would certainly be appreciated.

I was asked at one time whether I'd like to live in Tornado Alley, the hurricane zone or in earthquake country. I think that I quickly answered with "hurricane country" as you are given a certain time of warning that the beast is approaching. Even in Tornado Alley, there are certain predictions made that can give one at least a couple hours warning that the spit is about to hit the fan.

But here, in Earthquake Country, the only advance notice that we might receive is when our dogs and cats begin to go crazy for no good reason (usually in the middle of the night) just before the big one strikes.

DID YOU FEEL THAT?

Mark

I would rather live anywhere but an Earthquake area. The reasons are the exact ones you describe.

Dean Update:

Latest Federal guidance has Dean making landfall in Texas as a Catagory 3 or 4 Hurricane on Thursday August 23.

Federal, FEMA, numerous State, and National Guard pre deployment mobilization has been ordered. National Guard Joint Enabling Team (JET) is on the ground. Texas NG is now prestaging 152 personnel, 40 vehicles, and 3 HH-60s. Texas has declared 70 counties under a state of emergency. FEMA Coordinating Officer has been deployed. Joint Forces HQs has 3,500 members on alert for deployment and 1000 on reserve. Aircraft are being sent from several states to Florida for prestaging, including several C-130 medevac units. Red Cross is preparing to pre deploy and is already on the ground in Martinque for disaster recovery. 20 Para rescuers are on standby.

Ill keep updating as the info comes in.

T

Militia
You are so kind to even take a look at that for me. You've got to have your hands full right now with the storms approaching. Still keeping my fingers crossed! Thanks again, Leslie

I wasnt going to show this due to the fact that its a nighmare senario, and might scare people, but I think I will because it points out how hard it is to forecast something like a Hurricane.

This, is one of the latest model runs, and anyone want to guess what its telling us?



If you guessed a Catagory 5 Hurricane Dean just off of Galveston, you would be correct. Not that there is any confidence in this senario at all, but it shows how qwirky models can be.

Latest thinking on Dean is this, the forward speed of the storm will play a key roll here. There is an upper level low moving across the gulf from Florida. If the storm moves faster than the low, it turns NW around the low, and moves towards LA, TX. If the low moves ahead of the storm, it supresses the storm South, and the border becomes the target. Here is the key, keep an eye on the speed. If it stays above 19MPH, the first senario looks possible, if it drops below 19 for an extended period of time, the low makes it into the gulf first, and the storm is forced South. Either way, this promises to be an ugly storm.

T

There was a minor earth quake felt north of where I live, I am as ready as can be, food water etc. But if the earthquake is a bad one my apartment is up on supports so you can find me on top of my car.

Most here ignore earthqukes in other places and not one is ready to be on their own for 72 hours. They think I'm an old lady who knows nothing. I'm old but I've learned along the way, I was in a trailer when the Northridge hit. The tires bounced for 5 minutes.

It felt like 20