Originally posted by Paul_J:
quote:
Originally posted by xerello:
Without ceding any territory, NATO forces in Afghanistan should consolidate the territory that they now control. Within this territory the Afghan government can sort itself out and become effective enough to create and sustain a free and prosperous Afghanistan. Afghan security forces can be trained and established by NATO forces.
If a stable, effective Afghan government cannot be established in this territory, centered around Kabul, then we know it is not possible to establish one throughout the entire country.
As this free Afghanistan prospers, the Afghani who live outside of this territory will have an example of what it is like to live free and prosperous – they can then decide what kind of government they want to live under. Those who want to be free will flee to free Afghanistan or fight against the Taliban rule (with the help of covert NATO forces.) Those who want no part of western life can live oppressed in a land controlled by the Taliban, but shunned by the world.
It is far better to have the people want to be a part of a stable Afghanistan than to force a central government on all of Afghanistan. The free territory will eventually expand as the Afghani security forces can handle security and more and more Afghanis want to live free.
Meanwhile, from bases in free Afghanistan, American forces will continue to hunt and kill al Qaeda, hard core Taliban and other dangerous radicals in the region. Drone attacks will intensify over what they are today. Intelligence operations will be expanded. Special Operation Forces will conduct raids when necessary. If enemy forces gather for a large offensive on the free territory of Afghanistan, they will be attacked by air [and if necessary] ground forces. Poppy fields and drug convoys (a source of income for the Taliban) will be destroyed from the air when ever possible. American forces will still be at war with the Taliban and their allies, they will just not try to occupy every village in all parts of Afghanistan.
These offensive actions will address America’s national security concerns. We will keep forces in the region until al Qaeda is destroyed, or no longer has the capability to conduct attacks on America. But these American forces will be on the offensive, not an occupational force (the tip of the spear, not the heel of the boot.)
A little Afghanistan can be established with fewer troops that would be required to fight a full fledged counter insurgency through out Afghanistan. This limited engagement that focuses on the enemy that is a direct threat to America is something most Americans can support.
Yep, i agree. I had thoughts along those same lines about a year or so ago. We could center the Model of Democracy in North Western Kapisa Province possibly. They already have a good start in industry, a university, etc. There are also other possible places rich in natural resources as well which they can center a model (or possibly a few models) of democracy. They've got coal deposits, natural gas deposits, etc. Even precious stones up in Panjsher and in Badakhshan. We'd have a heck of a lot less to defend; maybe start with a district or two, then slowly branch out to encompass that whole province. One of the ideas I had a while ago also was to replace their poppy crop with corn. I heard a while back that corn prices have shot up dueto the biofuel issue. Afghans grow corn here in quite a few places and I think it's a pretty hardy crop, I'm not sure.
Problem is (as has been mentioned) is supply lines. Difficult to find a great solution there.
Another big problem, maybe one of the biggest, is the level of corruption here. It is the worst I have ever seen in my life. The Americans (either the NGOs, or the State Dept) give a buttload of money to a village elder to get a well dug. Then they go back to the safety of their offices in Kabul. When they want to know about the progress, they call the elder (sometimes just another corrupt warlord)and ask him to send a picture of the well. He gets a pic of another well getting dug some other place and sends it in. We Americans are too dang trusting. You can't spend one hour in Kabul without seeing at least 2 or 3 signs of corruption. The more dang money we send (our hard earned tax dollars) the richer it makes these frigging warlords. So we'd have to come up with a chitload of trust but verify measures to manage a Little Afghanistan/model of Democracy.
Anyway, trying to focus only on Kabul might not be the best idea. They already call Karzaithe mayor of kabul. And too much corruption. Kapisa is just north of Kabul, so maybe it'd be doable once we can secure Tagab, Nijrab, and Alasay districts (big problem there).
Another thing is we've got to press the Pakistanis to move their forces down to Quetta and possibly up into Chitral. That is where the Taliban and some of AQ have been hanging also (besides FATA).
Also if were to have 1 Free and 1 Taliban Afghanistan; it'd be divided between the south and the north, meaning the old ethnic rivalries would be a factor.
Bottom line is that alot of this chit, they're doing to themselves, holding themselves back. Civic projects are hard to get done due to corruption. It's hard to get cooperation overhere because of ethnic and tribal rivalries and just plain old selfishness (what's in it for me). I'm not saying all Afghans are like this, just a heck of alot of the ones at the top of the food chain (warlords).
