There has been a barage of bad news lately about the economy. Obviously we have the credit crisis which is only begining, we have the down turn in the hosuing market, the high price of energy and food, rising unemployement, dropping stock market, fed bailing out major financial insitutions and many going belly up or being bought up to save them from collapse. The automakers struggling, air lines struggling.

The only good news it would appear is that the dropping vlaue of the dollar and high fuel prices are bringing some of our manufacturing back to the states and giving us some ground on the export deficit. Of course we still have some GDP growth even if it is pathetically small.

But good god the media is just drumming the bad news day in and day out. Are they over blowing it? Or is the economy on a downward spiral? Is this going to be a receission or a depression?

We of the West will c**tinue to spirl downward in our overall standard of living due to the loss of our heavy industry.

We have to have vocati**s that allow the 'blue collar' to have the American dream.

**ly a relatively small percentage of our people are suited for 'white collar' or high tech vocati**s and that is just the way it is.

We have an energy crisis in America. We have envir0nmentalist's and politician's that are blocking oil drilling and any carb0n fuels.....with0ut giving an alternative. Our food is being imported and we were 0nce (recently too) the breadbasket of the world.

If that ain't stupid.....what is?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pken,

The ec**omy took several hits at **ce. This was due to inept policies and inept regulators.

With the libs taking over the country we can look foward to expensive give-a-ways.

I d**'t see a quick recovery in our future.

A good start would be our infrastructure. Road, bridges, dams and levies.

Also try and sp**sor the manufacture of more of the parts here rather than over there.

They are working on the board and adding to the dirty word list.

quote:

Originally posted by anoldnotboldrecondo:
We of the West will c**tinue to spirl downward in our overall standard of living due to the loss of our heavy industry.

We have to have vocati**s that allow the 'blue collar' to have the American dream.

**ly a relatively small percentage of our people are suited for 'white collar' or high tech vocati**s and that is just the way it is.

I can agree with this to a certain degree. We mus thave the ability to manufacture for a great number of reasons. Jobs of course being one of them.

I have been against global trade aliances for quite awhile and it sounds like you are as well. But at the same point we need to lay the ground work to make it enticing for manufacturing to come here. There are tons of things we can do along those lines including taxes, infrastructure, and yes as much as I am against it health care.

But we also need to work hard on our education system. I am really at a loss for how it could be doing as poorly as it is. But we need more science and math and even english for that matter. We need more going on to secondary education. We will never have vast blue collar job fields again even if we can extend our current count. We need to ensure our people are getting the right skills. Its not just blue collar work being offshored.

quote:

Originally posted by anoldnotboldrecondo:
A good start would be our infrastructure. Road, bridges, dams and levies.

Also try and sp**sor the manufacture of more of the parts here rather than over there.

I would agree that infrastructure definately needs some work. But I would disagree that roads should be part of that. Railroads and public transportation yes. Levies, dams, power grid yes. Wireless Telecomm yes! Water systems such as resevours yes!

Roads are a waste at this point.

quote:

Originally posted by mainedawg:
They are working on the board and adding to the dirty word list.

How are the letters "o" and "n" next to each other a dirty word?

quote:

Originally posted by bill_kananen:
The ec**omy took several hits at **ce. This was due to inept policies and inept regulators.

With the libs taking over the country we can look foward to expensive give-a-ways.

I d**'t see a quick recovery in our future.

I think your right. I currently believe we are heading to a very long recession. One unlike any I have seen in my lifetime. Probably lasting 4 to 6 years. Maybe even longer. I believe that because of this is being driven by energy as much as the credit crisis. Two major economic anchors this time around.

I don't know if it will really matter which party wins the elections.

My worry at this point is if we will really call it a recession or if it will actually be more of a depression. I am keeping my eye on the banking/credit crisis. Way to many people believe its not even close to being over. And there are tons of financial experts warning people to ensure they have their money FDIC insured. Does the government have the money to back up that insurance if some of these banks start going under without further devaluing the dollar and driving up energy even further? From what I am reading it sounds like 10s if not 100s of billions of deposits are at risk.

I live right on the water. Lake Conway in Arkansas.

This is so cool. I have had one up for about a month. I plan to trade fish for other food once the great depression hits.

http://www.bo-jofishlight.com/video.html

quote:

Originally posted by anoldnotboldrecondo:
I live right on the water. Lake Conway in Arkansas.

This is so cool. I have had one up for about a month. I plan to trade fish for other food once the great depression hits.

http://www.bo-jofishlight.com/video.html

Kewl. You gonna be able to keep the power on?

Better get you some solar panels quick... At least the thing uses energy efficient lights..

quote:

Originally posted by floersh:


Kewl. You gonna be able to keep the power on?

Better get you some solar panels quick... At least the thing uses energy efficient lights..

This is Arkansas. My cousin and my wife will gladly turn a generator instead of plowing.

The media is overreacting to the current Economic Situation, IMO.

This is actually a good time to increase your 401k contributions and personal savings plans because of all the idiots that are in full panic acting irrationally.

quote:

Originally posted by mainedawg:
They are working on the board and adding to the dirty word list.

See they are working on infrstructure already in response to the bad economy.

quote:

Originally posted by ErichG2:
The media is overreacting to the current Economic Situation, IMO.

This is actually a good time to increase your 401k contributions and personal savings plans because of all the idiots that are in full panic acting irrationally.

I am afraid that it is a little more sick then you might imagine. A 10% plus correction puts us officially in a bear market....which has not yet turned the corner.

quote:

Originally posted by dmuhler:
I am afraid that it is a little more sick then you might imagine. A 10% plus correction puts us officially in a bear market....which has not yet turned the corner.

I can imagine a lot. I remember the early 1980's, the late 1970's, 2001-2002.

Really, not the end of the world as we know it.

Yes you are right it is not quite 1929, still I am in cash and waiting for a little more direction. I still don't see the bottom. It may be months.

IMHO we went into recession in the 3rd quarter of 2007 when oil and food started their meteoric rise into the stratosphere while housing went deep into the tank.
Due to this administration's fuzzy math, the GDP numbers among other "economic indicators" used currently failed to show the recession we are in.
ANY GDP growth can be easily offset by inflationary forces in both food and energy as well as a very large increase in credit spending despite the housing mess.

When you discard the Bush administration's fuzzy math we find that we now face 4+% inflation and since "growth" has been due to excessive borrowing and those inflationary pressures I mentioned, we have actually been in a real recession since 3rd quarter 2007 and will continue to be until probably mid 2009.
Although the housing/mortgage crisis is now aproaching rock bottom we now have to contend with the credit card crisis which has been brewing since march of this year as people simply choose to "charge it" rather than make the necessary changes required to meet the new economic challenges we face with high energy and food prices. That is why we have only seen a slight decrease in gas usage over the last 6 months of 1.4% when it should be much more while the average amount of credit card balances among the American populace continues to break records month after month.
The Fed only complicated matters by lowering interest rates which was akin to trying to stop a steam roller with a paper wad. It only made matters worse and ruined the dollar.
Our economy can improve only if congress lifts the ban on oil exploration and thousands enter the workforce in energy related fields.
The oil industry could add hundreds of thousands of jobs in only a year to 18 months if this ban is lifted and energy prices could come down to 80/bbl within months of this even being announced.
If a "moonshot" type mentality were adopted, the USA could be energy independent in less than 7 years and give a very huge kick start to the American economy in the process.

However, If Obama becomes president, his radical marxist policies will send the USA into a great depression not seen since the 1930s

I Know my 401K is in the tank, but my Oil stocks are Booming.

Things are going pretty well in Texas I must admit with home values and with the job market.

I'm actually paying off my credit card balance.

After it is gone all I have is the mortgage payment and the insurance deductible on the car I just wrecked (heh-heh).

quote:

Things are going pretty well in Texas I must admit with home values and with the job market

SHHHHHHHH! We have enough Yankees here already!

Doh! Moving here from Wisconsin was probably one of the better financial decisions of my life......I'll admit. Never been "just scraping by" financially since.

quote:

Originally posted by FlankerFlyer:

I disagree that the credit crisis is near rock bottom. There are nearly $780 billion in adjustable mortgages still out there that are all due to start adjusting over the next two years. We aren't even half way there yet.

Aditionally, commercial loan defaults are on the rise. Not exactly sure what is driving that. I am sure some of it is developers.

As for what I see. When I see our cops out riding their bikes rather than patroling in the their cruisers that has me a bit concerned. First I live in po dunk. There is absolutely no way any of these bike cops are going to respond to any call way out here where they'd likely have to drive 10+ miles to respond.

I could understand city cops on bikes. But way out here? Seems our government budget is a bit crimped. And we couldn't even find any local cities putting on fireworks shows this year. More budget cuts.

You know things are bad when the city and state governments are struggling. Cops on bikes in po dunk georgia. Whats the point. Might as well have them sit in the cop shop.

quote:

Originally posted by ErichG2:
The media is overreacting to the current Economic Situation, IMO.

This is actually a good time to increase your 401k contributions and personal savings plans because of all the idiots that are in full panic acting irrationally.

I certainly hope so. I know we have seen the S&L issues of th emid 80s and a number of farily dark days during the 70s as it relates to oil.

My concern is that in all of those cases it was only one at a time. Today we have both at the same time for all practicle purposes. Add to that the massive debt, the lack of equity in housing, the devalued dollar, the soaring deficit in both fed budget as well as trade, the lack of any meaningful manufacturing.

Well I don't think we can compare todays situation with anything that occured during the 70s and 80s.

I live in a part of the country where there is still growth occurring. Several new factories are being built in my area now. One will manufacture wind turbines, another will manufacture polysilicon used to make solar panels. One plant just open, they make heavy mining equipment.

Will it stay that way? I don't think so, I think this country is headed for a full blown depression.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out....if I can survive it.

Many scenarios can take place. Just hope when we do come out of it that our government has acquired some common sense and will make laws that will prevent this kind of occurance from happening again.

quote:

Originally posted by fishnfanatic:
I live in a part of the country where there is still growth occurring. Several new factories are being built in my area now. One will manufacture wind turbines, another will manufacture polysilicon used to make solar panels. One plant just open, they make heavy mining equipment.

Will it stay that way? I don't think so, I think this country is headed for a full blown depression.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out....if I can survive it.

Many scenarios can take place. Just hope when we do come out of it that our government has acquired some common sense and will make laws that will prevent this kind of occurance from happening again.

I wouldn't worry too much Dave! Remember that discussion we had some time back about shortly after getting out of the service just disappearing into the National Forests?

We may not have a choice in the not too distant future!

It's never too early to start building that Log/Sod Cabin out there somewhere!

quote:

Aditionally, commercial loan defaults are on the rise. Not exactly sure what is driving that. I am sure some of it is developers.

That may have alot to do with overdevelopment in both retail space and motel/hotel capacity.
In the Indianapolis area, several independent operators of chain motels have gone under/sold out cheap or filed bankruptcy. Many strip shopping center owners are nearing the same position, especially the newer ones with high loan balances compared to older ones that have managed to keep tenants and update.
As business go under and factories layoff and/or move overseas, I expect corporate defaults to rise.
Of course, corporations get more bennies in bankruptcy so its not quite as traumatic as a consumer bankruptcy.

As far as the average family is concerned, many will hunker down and get through this first economic trouble of their lives and others have endured this before and will again.
Its not gonna be pretty and the number of poor and homeless is going to probably double by this time next year but Americans as a whole are going to do what it takes to make it.
The economy is due for a large contraction as the past 7 years of the Bush economy has been false growth done solely on credit. None of the stellar growth we have seen has been real. Even the GDP numbers posted over the past few years are very inaccurate and based upon that fuzzy math thats been so popular the past few years.

quote:

Originally posted by FlankerFlyer:

In the Indianapolis area, several independent operators of chain motels have gone under/sold out cheap or filed bankruptcy.

The numbers I am seeing are frightening. We are going to see a large number of small banks fail within the next two or three months. And it is quite likely we will see a number of large banks fail as well.

People if your deposits are not FDIC insured I would fix that pronto..

The economy sucks. I've lost close to $100,000.00 on paper. I glad I don't have to retire yet so it will remain a paper loss for now.

Is America in a permanent decline? The dollar is down. General Motors is losing ground to Toyota. Consumer bankruptcies are soaring in 2008, and stories of lender abuse abound. It's clear that the 2005 law designed to fix the problem is broken.

The only plus to this economy is my continued deferrals will buy more shares at the deflated prices. I am optimistic the economy and the financial markets will recover by the time I'm ready to retire. If not, I'm screwed along with everyone else in this country.