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Military.com Forums Coast Guard Discussions The Soapbox 2008 U.S. Mainland Terrorist Attack Potential|
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes  |
What follows are my thoughts on the potential of a terrorist attack on the U.S. mainland this year. This information is taken from mostly open source research and several private briefs. This has nothing do to do with my political views. I have no interest in "warmongering", but I do have an interest in keeping everyone on the same page with the threat and discussing what could be.
There are several indications that give a clue as to the timeing of the next attack. These include the current political climate in the US and the world, the ideology of Al Qaeda (AQ), and past successes that AQ claims. (1) There can be no denying that the AQ can claim success from the cell responsible for the Madrid train bombing. The same goes with the London bombings. The fact that these were homegrown terrorist or AQ sympathizers doesnt matter. The attack changed the political climate of Spain, and resulted in the pull out from troops in Iraq as AQ had hoped. (2) The US is in a Presidential election year. Both parties are close in the polls with American voters and there is no indication of which party will win in November. However, both Democratic candidates have publicly stated that they will pull troops from Iraq if elected. The Republican nominee has come out with a plan that leaves troops to finish the job and stabilize Iraq. (3) Osama and Zawiheri have both stated that Iraq is the primary battle ground of the Jihad. After a year of silence, Osama has issued his third audio tape as of this morning. In this tape, he calls for continued jihad against Isreal and the West. (4) Earlier this year, an AQ website asked for questions from supporters. These questions would be answered by AQ #2, Zawahiri. After the questions disappeared from the site, Zawahiri replied as promised. Many of the questions from supporters asked why the US mainland hadnt been attacked again. He replied that an attack was coming. This has to bother AQ that supporters would question them. (5) I think its safe to assume that AQ cannot stand President Bush. I believe there is some indication that they will want to embarrass him before he leaves office. He has openly stated that he is proud the US hasnt seen an attack since 9-11. (6) The surge in Iraq has had a positive effect. Violence is down, Iraqis are returning home. Even AQ has made statements to support less operational flexability. (7) Even through we all know this isnt correct, I suspect AQ more than likely believes Obama is a Muslim, or at a minimum, has muslim ties. If you think about the location of the AQ leadership, it is doubtfull any real news is reaching that location, and any that does make it, its three days behind. There was the picture of Obama dressed in local klan attire in Africa. Since pictures speak louder than words, I dont think its to unbelieveable to assume that much of the AQ leadership has seen this picture. When you combine this, with the recent endorsement from Hamas, and his statement to pull troops from Iraq, I think ist safe to assume that AQ feels similar to Hamas. Conclusion: I believe there is a high probability that AQ will attempt an attack on the US mainland before Dec 08. This attack may be from AQ sympathizers, or AQ operatives that have used a back door to get into the Country. We know for a fact that they will use what has worked before, and to them, Madrid worked. This attack will more than likely be simultanious, and will more than likely involve mass transit. It will almost certainly involve at least one attack on DC. There is one nightmare senario I have always feared, and its an AQ attack on a school. Any thoughts? T |
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Experienced Member |
Tony,
You have made a good case. Another attack is more a question of when rather than if. Hopefully, we have learned a little bit since 9/11 in the matters of knowing what to look for in message traffic as well as operational matters. Mass transit is always a target due to its high profile status. I don't think the Obama/Muslim connection means much in reality. I think it means more here politically than it means to AQ for propaganda. I like your take on AQ being disturbed at being questioned. However, we must remember that bin Laden is leader only in that he has the highest profile. AQ is not an hierarchical organization like an Army or a corporation. It is meant to be amorphous. I just finished a course of study on threat assessment and risk management. It did a great deal in helping understand the difference between the two and the importance of each. Pat |
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Highly Experienced Member |
Based on their past attacks before elections...We are not Spain. I would think they wouldn't want to attack before this election, unless they want to ensure a conservative victory. |
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CG Forums Lead Moderator Something Wicked This Way Comes |
No, not based on their attacks before prior elections, but based on everything I stated above in totality. I agree that an attack would lead to an opposite reaction with Americans, and I am not sure AQ understands that.
T |
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Highly Experienced Member |
I respect your opinion....but I think you aren't giving them the credit they deserve, the extremists are united in purpose, have great motivation (unfortunately we provide a little too much of that) and they are pretty darn smart....I think they've proven time and again that they do their homework. |
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10-day suspension for personal attacks |
Hello Militia and Hooligan, I am new here and I felt compelled to reply on this thread. This is all so true. For a long time AQ has stated openly what their further intentions are and when they feel that they can do something, they do it. The world is polluted with terror and AQ is said to even be in Gaza since after 9/11. Sadly, history tends to repeat itself, especially when socities become complacent. There is that saying that goes, "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is, for good men to do nothing." It will be the fault of the free world if we do not continue to make attempts to eradicate this cancer of terrorists. A large part of the onus is on us as the US of A, as we are one of the top leaders in strength. Sadly, much of the time when you are at the top, not everybody seeks to join you, but rather, they seek to topple you. So, we have to preserve ourselves, though, I do not think we are ready for a major attack when it comes to response. In a place like Israel (I have a lot of family there and have visited there since I was a child) where there are frequent acts of terrorism which flucuate over time, they are much more prepared, as they have less land to govern and less people. Here, though. I fear a lot of what could be, as we are so large in landmass and populace. This world allowed Hitler to rise to power and wreak havoc. AQ already showed themselves here before, as they are here in the US just waiting to be ordered to begin the next round of insanity. Many people say that they feel safer (but are we really safer, overall?) and believe that nothing will happen again, but to just deny it all and act like nothing will happen again is to not face reality. Sadly, this is the way of the world. 9/11 was a wakeup call for some Americans, but not for all Americans. BTW, I'm not interested in warmongering either, but I also don't want to be a victim and seek to help my compatriots, should the need arise. |
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"Jai is my Yoda" |
I don't know if I'm way off the bat on this...could be, I don't claim to be a political master mind here. But wouldn't it be more likely that AQ would attack after the election. 9/11 occured shortly after Bush was first elected. The rippling chain of events stringing from this attack has shaped the last eight years. It's taken huge toll on our economy, dramatically increased our National debt, taken a large toll on our military, our social security, you name it. We are suffering, and will be for years to come, the effects that in some ways partially started with the first terrorist attack. Obviously other factors are to be considered as well. But in my mind...at this point it would serve them no purpose to attack before election. We are in an election where people want this war finished, the troops home, the Republicans out, and for a new era of change to occurr. I would think it would be more crippling to wait till the new president is established in office, and then hit. Especially if it was a Democrat. There is alot of hope that Democrats will take over from the Republicans and make a serious change..that would be one heck of a way to test that. Also America is sick of being at war...with the new Presidential hopefuls promising to end the war, and bring troops home, it would put immense pressure on a new president to try and handle a new attack after making all these promises. I don't know...I could be way out with this..just kind of how it makes sense in my mind!! |
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Experienced Member |
AQ loves the mode we are presently in. Instead of having to come here they are killing us there in the open and gaining popularity while doing it. If they attack before the election it will compel the new POTUS, regardless of who they are to perpetuate our failed policies for political reasons.
On the other hand, if they attack after the election it may show that 8 years of playing Whac-a-mole in the Middle East and 5+ years in Iraq alone were ineffective and allow the new POTUS to withdraw from the Middle East and take on the real problem, AQ in its basic form. |
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Member |
I don't know about you but personally I'm glad the AQ focus is on killing our ARMED well trained troops in the Middle East and Afghanistan rather than my children while sitting in school or at the mall. |
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Experienced Member |
Maz,
Sadly, one has little to do with the other. When they choose to strike here they will. Fortunately, some planned ops have already been defeated before inception. This has nothing to do with the fighting and dieing in Iraq. Once we separate the War on Terror from the War in Iraq we will be safer. AQ is no less or no more capable of attacking the U.S. because of Iraq. |
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Highly Experienced Member |
Sadly Hooligan refuses to recognize that we are trying to protect against huge numbers of innocent civilian deaths by using a trained military. |
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Military.com Forums Coast Guard Discussions The Soapbox 2008 U.S. Mainland Terrorist Attack Potential
