RE: http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,190337,00.html

What an intriguing idea! I followed along just fine until I read Mr Lind's comment that if this WERE a test, the US would fail because it refused to consider a border closure with Mexico. My earnest, non-humorous question is, how does he know whether decision makers in the US considered this option?

The option of closing borders and quarantining populations as a response to a true threat is always there. I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts that the option WAS considered, and a rational, evidence-based decision was made that effectively quarantining the US by closing its borders with Mexico wasn't necessary.

The evidence so far shows that Mexico, a land without a functional diesease surveillance system (as we in the US have), has suffered a great many cases of swine flu, with associated deaths. What does the evidence show in the US, either on the virulence of the virus or the rapidity of spread? Well, judging from the output from the CDCs and the WHO, there doesn't appear to be much concern. Why? This version of swine flu is about as virulent as that experienced in the US during the usual annual flu season. And, OBTW, deaths per year in the US from "normal flu" average 30+ thousand. So, what's the death rate in the US for swine flu? Check the evidence -- and then tell everyone we need to close our borders. Doesn't much wash for me ...

But, Mr Lind, you're oh so right when you say that the response by the public will be panic -- so, let's spread a little more around by positing that this flu spread could be a trial run for a plague release by the bad guys (but very sophisticated bad guys!). Good move.

quote:

Originally posted by 13257255:
RE:
But, Mr Lind, you're oh so right when you say that the response by the public will be panic -- so, let's spread a little more around by positing that this flu spread could be a trial run for a plague release by the bad guys (but very sophisticated bad guys!). Good move.

I don't feel that he was trying to add to the spread of panic. He was only saying that this Admin. should treat this as a test of the worse case. Treat it like an AAR, what went right? What went wrong? How can we improve?

This clown is now and has been an air head! CLose the border with Mexico? The normal divisonal frontage during wartime was about 25km- since you are talking about a possibly long time period you would have to shorten the frontage- we don't have enough troops nor equipment in the US military to close our borders- Think on it- or better yet read about it in one of the series of books by author Coyle- where he has a scenario with a limited war against Mexico instigated by drug lords. I think using those numbers it required approx 100 divisions- we have what now 8-10 active with maybe another 10-15 in the Guard? If it was a test run, then why is it so non-lethal? or at least to anyone with any healthcare systems. Most of the deaths have been the poverty stricken living in slums w/o any health care or normal sanitation.Please spare me from ivory tower idiots with nothing to do in their spare time! A non warrior low key politico who thinks he knows how to fix everything, now believes he's a WMD/bio wizard.

quote:

Originally posted by lovatscot:
This clown is now and has been an air head! CLose the border with Mexico? The normal divisonal frontage during wartime was about 25km- since you are talking about a possibly long time period you would have to shorten the frontage- we don't have enough troops nor equipment in the US military to close our borders- Think on it- or better yet read about it in one of the series of books by author Coyle- where he has a scenario with a limited war against Mexico instigated by drug lords. I think using those numbers it required approx 100 divisions- we have what now 8-10 active with maybe another 10-15 in the Guard? If it was a test run, then why is it so non-lethal? or at least to anyone with any healthcare systems. Most of the deaths have been the poverty stricken living in slums w/o any health care or normal sanitation.Please spare me from ivory tower idiots with nothing to do in their spare time! A non warrior low key politico who thinks he knows how to fix everything, now believes he's a WMD/bio wizard.

So you are trying to invalidate Lind’s point by using a work of fiction? That’s funny.

Well, Lind threw a hypothetical problem out there for thought and discussion versus his normal problem minus solution. For once, I was intrigued...a little...to late...