While I agree an escalation in the region on our part would be a foolhardy enterprise, actions by others may transpire that will eventually drag us in whether we like it or not. Ultimately those people don't worry about the USA nearly as much as they worry about the folks right next door.
As for what's happening in Iraq, I am no fortune-teller but I think I know exactly how Iraq will go down after we withdraw. It'll be like Saigon 1975 all over again. The Iraqi government will certainly fall. Who will take its place?
My money is on one of two possibilities: no government, and open civil war between the various sectarian and tribal factions (just like another Somalia); or a single charismatic leader who rises to the top by ruthlessly crushing his rivals (just like Saddam Hussein). I somehow doubt that Iraq's currently corrupt and ineffective government will just "sort itself out" after we leave.
I wish that the Maliki administration would do the right thing i.e. notify both the UN and the US that it neither needed nor wanted the presence of Coalition/US military forces on its soil. But This is not going to happen. Deep inside this "Vichy"-style government are many -too many- collaborators, who do not want to risk the consequences for their collaboration which might fall upon them, should Iraqi nationalists subsequently take power.
Unless or until these collaborators find it to be more expedient to be nationalists than it currently is to be collaborative, they will always cave in to the demands of the American occupiers.
Originally posted by AGBrina: I wish that the Maliki administration would do the right thing i.e. notify both the UN and the US that it neither needed nor wanted the presence of Coalition/US military forces on its soil. But This is not going to happen. Deep inside this "Vichy"-style government are many -too many- collaborators, who do not want to risk the consequences for their collaboration which might fall upon them, should Iraqi nationalists subsequently take power.
Unless or until these collaborators find it to be more expedient to be nationalists than it currently is to be collaborative, they will always cave in to the demands of the American occupiers.
Who knows? We're holding 30 or 40 billion dollars of oil revenue they've made. Maybe part of being asked to leave will be turning that money over to them. Surely spilting up that cash should be an incentive...
I think Mr. Lind made quite a few good points that I agree with. Better to get out now with some dignity, rather than staying in 100 years with McCain or wholesale withdrawal with Obama.
However the author needs a better proofreader / spellchecker.
"...the Iraqis did not welcome American troops with flowers, but they might but they might be willing to toss a few our way as we pulled out."
"A Shiite – dominated Iran free of American occupation would have a close relationship with Iran."
